[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A frontal system is expected to develop over the central Atlantic
today. By 25/1800 UTC, gale-force winds are forecast to develop
from 27N-30N between 52W-55W. Seas in this area will range
between 10-14 ft. The front will move eastward, bringing gales
north of 28N between 42W-47W through Thu. Seas will range from
11-15 ft. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
ITCZ between 20W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layered ridging covers the western Gulf, leading to quiet
weather. A complex 1003 mb low pressure over the western Atlantic
near 30N72W is keeping fresh to strong winds over the eastern
Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the western
half of the basin.

The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through tonight.
A weak surface trough will drift westward across the central and
western Gulf Wed through Fri, with fresh E to SE winds on the E
side of the trough. The next cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to 11N80W.
Scattered showers is noted along the front. Scattered moderate
convection has developed along and north of the monsoon trough
mainly south of 12N between 80W-82W. ASCAT data depicts fresh NW
to N winds behind the front, while fresh ESE trades prevail over
the eastern and central Caribbean.

The front will dissipate as it drifts eastward tonight. Fresh to
strong N winds are expected west of the front near the coast of
Nicaragua through Wed. Winds and seas will diminish across the
central Caribbean Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A 1003 mb surface low is centered near 30N70W. An occluded front
extends from the low to a triple point near 30N67W. A cold front
extends from 30N67W to 23N68W to 20N73W. A warm front extends
from 30N67W to 28N60W. To the east of the west Atlantic cold
front described in the section above, scattered to numerous
moderate convection is noted within 350 nm east of the cold front,
mainly north of 24N. To the east, a 1021 mb surface high is over
the central Atlantic near 28N34W. A cold front enters the eastern
Atlantic area near 31N20W to 20N32W. Scattered showers are noted
along the front.

The cold front will slowly weaken as it continues moving east
through tonight. The low pressure system will shift E across the
northern waters through Thu. Fresh NE to E winds are expected
elsewhere across the region Thu through Fri night.

$$

ERA
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