[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202308
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
608 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A non-tropical area of low pressure will develop over the north-
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This low should strengthen
while it moves northeastward toward the Florida Big Bend region
later in the weekend. Gale force winds are expected over the NE
Gulf waters Saturday night, 22/0000 UTC, from 26N-28N between
86W- 87W. Seas will range from 9-12 ft. These gale force winds
will last through Sunday morning, 22/1200 UTC. For more details
see the Gulf of Mexico section below and the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

Another area of NW gale force winds is expected to develop in the
SW Bay of Campeche on 22/0300 UTC. Seas will range from 8-10 ft in
NE swell. These gale force winds will continue through Sunday
morning, 22/1200 UTC. For more details see the Gulf of Mexico
section below and the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N36W to NE
Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
along and within 250 n mi north of the ITCZ between 26W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong surface high over the eastern U.S. is causing fresh to
strong northeasterly to easterly winds across much of the Gulf of
Mexico today. There are a couple of surface troughs, one over the
central Gulf, analyzed from 22N86W to 30N90W, and another over
the western Bay of Campeche, analyzed from 27N97W to 28N96W, that
are likely strengthening the winds. U.S. Doppler radar shows
moderate rain showers moving off the Texas and NE Mexican
coastline. No significant convection is noted across the Gulf
otherwise. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong easterly
winds east of the central Gulf trough, with moderate winds west of
this feature. There is also moderate southeasterly winds off the
Texas coast.

Strong NE winds prevail over the eastern Gulf and the Straits of
Florida as a low pressure trough persists over the central Gulf.
Low pressure will develop along this trough on Saturday, then
move NE and deepen through Sunday night as it crosses northern
Florida. Gale force winds are expected over the NE Gulf Saturday
night as the low approaches the Florida Big Bend. An associated
cold front will sweep across the central and eastern Gulf this
weekend. Strong NW winds will follow the front, with gale force
winds expected over the far SW Gulf off the coast of Veracruz.
Winds will gradually diminish Monday through Tuesday night as
high pressure settles over the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough over the Gulf of Honduras, analyzed from 17N82W
to 16N89W, is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms from
14N-19N between 79W-87W. A trough is analyzed in the Windward
Passage but no significant convection is associated with it. Upper
level ridging dominates the rest of the basin which is inhibiting
deep convection. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong
northerly and westerly winds in the Gulf of Honduras along with
strong winds north of Colombia. Fresh winds are also seen in the
central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are noted in
the SW basin.

Strong W flow will persist near the coast of Honduras
this evening as winds funnel between the coastline and a low
pressure trough about 60 nm N of the coast of Honduras. High
pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades and
large seas over the central and eastern Caribbean and Tropical N
Atlantic waters through early next week. Winds near the coast of
Colombia will pulse to near gale force speeds at night through
Sunday. A cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel late Sunday,
then weaken Mon as it crosses the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong N
winds will follow the front over the western Caribbean through
Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface cold front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N46W
to 28N58W where it becomes stationary and extends to eastern
Cuba. Low- level convergence near the front and an upper-level
trough are producing scattered showers within 150 nm of the
stationary front. There is a weak surface trough over the
Windward Passage but no significant convective activity is
observed near it. Seas are highest, up to 13 ft, behind the front
near the Bahamas where northeasterly winds are strong. Otherwise,
a 1023 mb surface high near 27N32W dominates the central and
eastern Atlantic. This high pressure system and abundant dry air
in the middle and upper- levels of the atmosphere are producing
widespread fair weather across the central and eastern Atlantic.

The stationary front will weaken tonight and Saturday. Strong
high pressure N of the front will support strong to near gale
force NE to E winds over the waters N of 23N through Saturday.
Low pressure is expected to develop in the NE Gulf of Mexico
Saturday and Saturday night, then head NE across northern Florida
Sunday and Sunday night. Gale force winds are expected E of
northern Florida late Sunday and Sunday night as the low deepens.
A trailing cold front will move across the area Monday through
Tuesday night, followed by strong winds and building seas.

$$
AKR
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