[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201137
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tight pressure gradient is leading to a small area of NE to E
gale force winds 60 nm off the coast of Florida from 25N to 27N.
Seas will range from 9-14 ft. This gale force wind event will
continue through this evening. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N30W to NE
Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen within
280 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 33W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging remains in control across the Gulf of Mexico.
This is being anchored by a 1033 mb high in the Carolinas. There
is a trough in the western Bay of Campeche analyzed from 18N94W to
22N97W. A second trough is analyzed from the Yucatan Channel to
25N87W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds on either side of the trough in the
eastern and central Gulf with moderate winds west of 90W in the
western Gulf.

Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over much of the eastern Gulf
and Straits of Florida. These winds will continue today as a
surface trough develops over the central Gulf. An area of low
pressure will begin to develop along the trough in the north-
central Gulf early Sat and deepen as it moves northeastward
through Sun evening, crossing northern Florida. An associated cold
front will sweep across the central and eastern Gulf this weekend,
followed by strong west to northwest winds. Winds will diminish
Mon and Tue as high pressure settles over the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is draped across the northwestern Caribbean
from 21N79W to the Gulf of Honduras near 15N87W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of this front.
Additionally, an upper level disturbance is digging across the NW
Caribbean. This is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection in the SW Caribbean in the near waters of Panama, Costa
Rica to Nicaragua. Upper level ridging covers the eastern Caribbean
which is inhibiting deep convection over PR and the most of the
Lesser Antilles. A surface trough is visible in the latest
scatterometer data extending from 17N72W to 22N72W. Moderate to
fresh easterly trades is present over the eastern and central
Caribbean while fresh to strong are seen north of Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela.

A stationary front across the NW Caribbean is supporting fresh to
strong northerly winds W of the front, with funneling effects
inducing an area of strong to near gale force westerly winds north
of Honduras. The front will gradually weaken through tonight.
High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trades and high seas in the tropical north Atlantic and most of
the Caribbean through Mon. A cold front will move into the western
Caribbean Sun night, and reach from eastern Cuba to the coast of
southern Nicaragua on Tue. Fresh northwest to north winds will
follow this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic,
from 31N53W to 23N72W, then stalls from 23N71W to central Cuba
near 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is along the boundary.
Scattered showers are present 180 nm behind the stationary front
in the central Bahamas. Surface ridging covers the rest of the
basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N33W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds behind
the cold front with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the
front.

A slow moving frontal boundary extends from 26N65W to central
Cuba. The front will weaken and become stationary by tonight.
Strong high pressure N of the front will allow fresh to strong NE
winds to continue S of 28N through Sun morning. A low pressure
area expected to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sat will
move across northern Florida Sun through Mon. Gale force east to
southeast winds are possible east of northern Florida Sun night
and Mon as the low deepens. A trailing cold front will move across
the area early Mon through Tue night, followed by fresh to strong
winds and building seas.

$$
MMT
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