[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tight pressure gradient is leading to a small area of N to NE gale
force winds 60 nm off the coast of Florida from 25N to 27N. Seas
will range from 9-14 ft. This gale force wind event will last
through 20/0000 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N28W to NE
Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered showers are seen within 230 nm from
the ITCZ between 26W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to spread across the Gulf of Mexico
following the strong cold front that went through yesterday. This
is being anchored by a 1034 mb high in the Ohio Valley. There is a
trough in the western Bay of Campeche analyzed from 18N94W to
23N98W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong northerly
winds in the western Bay of Campeche west of the trough with
moderate to fresh N to NE winds east of the trough. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds are in the western Gulf with fresh to
strong NE winds in the eastern Gulf.

Strong high pressure over the Ohio Valley is supporting strong
north to northeast winds over the southeastern Gulf. Winds and
seas will gradually diminish this evening as the high shifts
northeastward. Strong northeast to east winds will continue across
the eastern Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Friday night
as the cold front stalls. A north to south aligned surface trough
will develop across the central Gulf Friday, with strong east
winds covering the Gulf to the east of the trough. Low pressure is
expected to develop from the trough over NE Gulf by early Saturday
and move across northern Florida this weekend. Gale force winds
are possible in the NE Gulf late Saturday through Saturday night
and in the far SW Gulf Saturday night and Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is draped across the northwestern Caribbean
from 16N86W to 22N80W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
within 60 nm of this front. Additionally, an upper level
disturbance is digging across the NW Caribbean. Meanwhile, the
Colombian low is displaced in the SW Caribbean, with a central
pressure of 1006 mb and is near 11N75W. These two features are
setting off scattered moderate convection in the western Caribbean
from 09N-16N between 77W-84W. Upper level ridging covers the
eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection.
Thunderstorms are seen in the Mona Passage but Puerto Rico
eastward into the Lesser Antilles have benign conditions.
The latest scatterometer data depicts strong northerly winds in
the Yucatan Channel southward into the Gulf of Honduras. The rest
of the Caribbean have moderate to fresh trades.

A stationary front will gradually weaken through Friday night.
High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trades and high seas in the tropical north Atlantic and most of
the Caribbean through Monday. A cold front will move into the
western Caribbean Sea on Sunday night into Monday and reach from
near eastern Cuba to near the coast of southern Nicaragua on
Tuesday. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow in
behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front extends across the central and western
Atlantic, from 31N60W to 24N73W, then stalls from 24N73W to
central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is east of
the cold front from 22N-25N between 69W-72W. Otherwise, scattered
showers are within 60 nm on either side of the front. Farther
east, a dying stationary front enters the eastern Atlantic waters
near 30N19W and stretches SW to 25N31W. No significant convection
is associated with it. Surface ridging covers the rest of the
basin anchored by a 1024 mb high near 27N38W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds behind
the cold front with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the
front.

The front will reach from near 26N65W to east-central Cuba late
tonight then become stationary. Strong northeast winds and high
seas are expected across much of the area to the northwest of the
front, as it completely becomes stationary and weakens through
Friday night. It will begin to drift northward over the weekend.
A low pressure center is expected to develop in the eastern Gulf
of Mexico on Saturday, and move across northern Florida on Sunday.
Gale force east to southeast winds are possible east of northern
Florida on Sunday night and Monday as the low intensifies.

$$
AKR
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