[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The 12-hour forecast consists of: a cold front along 30N93W
26N97W. Expect N winds 20 to 30 knots, sea heights to 8 feet, and
frequent gusts to gale-force, within 28N94W to 27N95W to 27N97W to
28N97W to 30N94W to 28N94W. The 24-hour forecast consists of: a
cold front from 30N88W to 24.5N94W to 21N96W to 18N94W. Expect NW-
to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12
feet, within 21N96W to 19N96W to 21N97W to 24N98W to 24N96W to
21N96W. NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. The gale-
force wind conditions are expected to continue until at least
Wednesday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ passes through the southernmost coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 05N08W, to 05N15W, 04N19W, 04N25W, to the
Equator along 36W, and to the Equator along 44W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 34W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is to the south ITCZ between 07W and 26W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong within 150 nm to the north of
the ITCZ between 16W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Southerly return flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, in advance of the
cold front that is going to bring the gale-force winds, from the
SPECIAL FEATURES section. Broken to overcast middle level and high
level clouds are covering the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh to strong S return flow in the W Gulf will persist today. A
strong cold front will move off the Texas coast by this evening,
extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Tue
afternoon, then move across the SE Gulf by Wed afternoon. N gales
and building seas are expected W of the front mainly W of 94W,
commencing tonight in the NW Gulf, spreading southward through
Wed. Winds and seas will diminish in the central and western Gulf
Thu through Fri. Strong NE to E winds will continue in the
Straits of Florida after the frontal passage Thu through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from NW Cuba to the central coast of
Honduras. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong,
from 15N to 20N from the Windward Passage westward, in trade wind
flow.

Fresh to strong trade winds, and building seas E of 80W,
will persist through mid-week as the Bermuda High builds N of the
area. Winds will pulse to near gale on tonight near the coast of
Colombia. A strong cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel Wed,
extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Wed night, then
stall and weaken in the NW Caribbean Thu into Thu night. Winds
and seas will diminish gradually in the NW Caribbean Fri and Fri
night. Mixed N swell and E wind waves will maintain seas 8 ft or
greater in the Tropical N Atlantic waters for the next several
days, before diminishing on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N54W, to 30N60W, 25N70W, and close
to the Bahamas near 24N73W. Precipitation: significant deep
convective precipitation covers the area from 32N northward
between 40W and 50W. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on
either side of the cold front from 24N to 32N.

A cold front passes through 32N09W, along the coast of Morocco
and the Western Sahara, to 24N20W, 22N30W, 25N40W, and 30N46W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite
imagery. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm in front of the
cold front, between 30W and 45W.

The current cold front that reaches the SE Bahamas will stall and
weaken today across the northern waters. A stronger cold front
will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Tuesday night. The front
will extend from near 31N74W to the S Florida peninsula on Wed
afternoon. The front will extend from 28N65W to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba on Thu afternoon, and finally stalling
in the S Bahamas on Fri afternoon. Strong N to NE winds and
building seas are expected across much of the region following the
frontal passage.

$$
MT
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