[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico by Monday night. Gale-force northerly winds are forecast
to occur behind the front along the coast near Tampico and
Veracruz, Mexico, on Tuesday and Wednesday. Please refer to the
latest High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02
KNHC/HSFAT2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Guinea near 10N14W to
06N34W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N43W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 02N-08N between 20W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Generally quiet weather conditions exist across the Gulf of Mexico
supported by a surface ridge that extends across the basin from a
1024 mb high pressure in the west Atlantic. Surface winds are
generally out of the southeast and south over much of the region,
and are moderate to fresh over the northern and western Gulf waters.

Fresh to strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf will
persist through Mon. A strong cold front will move off the Texas
coast Mon night, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche Tue, then move across the SE Gulf on Wed. Gale force
northerly winds and building seas are expected west of the front
near the coast of Mexico Tue through Wed. Winds and seas will
diminish over the central and western Gulf Thu through Fri.
Strong NE to E winds will continue over the Straits of Florida
Thu through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shower activity has persisted during the past several hours over
Hispaniola and adjacent waters, related to a surface trough that
extends from 21N72W to 14N73W. An upper trough over the Yucatan
Peninsula is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms west of 82W
to across the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, generally fair weather
persists across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas will develop east of 80W
overnight and persist through mid week as high pressure builds
north of the area. Winds will pulse to near gale force speeds on
Mon night near the coast of Colombia. A strong cold front will
cross the Yucatan Channel Wed, extend from western Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras Wed night, then stall and weaken over the NW
Caribbean Thu into Thu night. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish over the NW Caribbean Fri and Fri night. Northerly swell
will maintain seas 8 ft or greater over the Tropical N Atlantic
waters through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N61W to 24N73W.
Scattered showers are seen 80 nm southeast of the cold front.
Surface ridging is building in the wake of the front across the
far west Atlantic with a 1024 mb high pressure. To the east,
another cold front enters the area near 31N15W to 26N30W to
29N43W. Strong northwesterly winds and scattered showers exist
behind this boundary. Elsewhere, high pressure is supporting
generally fair weather conditions.

A cold front extending from 31N62W to 28N65W to 24N73W will stall
and weaken overnight into Mon across the northern waters. A
stronger cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast Tue
night, then extend from near 31N70W across the NW Bahamas to
western Cuba on Wed night. Strong N to NE winds and building seas
are expected across much of the region following frontal passage.
The front will cross the southern Bahamas on Thu, then stall over
the central waters Thu night through Fri night.

$$
MMT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net