[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Sierra Leone near 07N11W
to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 05N33W to 01N48W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
165 nm of the ITCZ between 18W-44W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is also seen south of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ from 09S-05N E of 18W to the coast of Africa near
05W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 15/0900 UTC, the stalled front across the southern Gulf has
began to dissipate. High pressure continues to build across the
area anchored by a 1018 mb high near 27N83W. Meanwhile, a warm
front is noted across the northeast Gulf from 29N84W to the
southern Louisiana coast near 29N90W. This warm front is expected
to move farther inland today. The latest scatterometer data and
surface observations depict moderate to fresh southerly winds in
the NW Gulf off the SE Texas coast, calm to light winds in the
eastern Gulf, and light to gentle winds elsewhere.

Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the
western Gulf on Sunday and persist through early Monday. A strong
cold front will move off the Texas coast Monday night, extend
from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Tuesday, then
move across the SE Gulf on Wednesday. Gale force northerly winds
are expected west of the front near the coast of Mexico Tuesday
through Wednesday. Winds and seas will diminish over the central
Gulf Thursday and Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging continues to sit over most of the Caribbean.
Meanwhile, mid-level troughing extends from the western Atlantic
to the west-central Caribbean as the the mid-level ridge retreats
to the central Atlantic. A trough is analyzed from the central
Caribbean to the southern Bahamas, from 16N24W to 24N73W. Scattered
moderate convection continues to occur south of the Dominican
Republic and western Puerto Rico from 16N-19N between 67W- 70W.
The rest of Puerto Rico and the USVI are also seeing scattered
showers across the region. The latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh trades north of Colombia with gentle to moderate trades
across the central and western Caribbean. Fresh trades are noted
in the eastern Caribbean.

Moderate easterly winds will prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean through Sunday. Winds and seas will increase
east of 80W Sunday night through early next week as high pressure
builds north of the area. A strong cold front will cross the
Yucatan Channel Wednesday, extend from western Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras Wednesday night, then stall and weaken over the NW
Caribbean Thursday and Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 15/0900 UTC, a cold front extends into the western Atlantic
near 31N70W to the northern Bahamas near 25N78W, then stalls from
that point to north-central Cuba near 23N81W. A pre-frontal
trough is analyzed from 26N72W to 30N67W. Showers are seen ahead
of the cold front, mostly N of 27N. Scattered moderate convection
is ahead of the pre-frontal trough from 27N-81N between 65W-71W.

A trough extends across the central Atlantic, with a surface
trough analyzed from 22N49W to 26N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen near the surface trough from 20N-25N between
46W-52W. A cold front has entered the central Atlantic, stretching
from 31N28W to 31N43W. An upper level trough continues to slide
eastward toward NE Africa. This is producing scattered showers
over Western Sahara, Morocco, and the Canary Islands from 23N-31N
between 11W- 21W. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong to
near gale force winds behind the cold front, mostly N of 29N
between 75W-78W. Moderate to fresh winds are seen ahead of the
front.

The cold front will quickly pass eastward across the northern
waters through Sunday, with strong southerly flow persisting
ahead of the front N of 28N. The front will stall and weaken east
of the area Sunday night and Monday. A stronger cold front will
move off the southeast U.S. coast Tuesday night, and extend from
near 31N70W across the NW Bahamas to central Cuba on Wednesday
night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected
across much of the region following frontal passage. The front
will cross the southern Bahamas on Thursday, then stall over the
central waters on Thursday night.

Farther east, Meteo France is noting westerly near gale force
winds can be expected near Agadir over the next day.

$$
AKR
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