[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Sierra Leone near 08N13W
to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 04N33W to 02N50W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
200 nm of the ITCZ between 17W-40W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is also seen south of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ from 01S-04N E of 17W to the coast of Africa near 07W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to
the SE Gulf near 24N83W, then stalls from 24N83W to north of the
Yucatan near 21N89W. Showers are seen along this boundary. Surface
ridging extends over most of the basin anchored by a 1015 mb high
near 28N88W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate
southerly winds in the NW Gulf off the SE Texas coast with calm to
light winds elsewhere.

The cold front will move SE of the Gulf overnight. Fresh to
strong southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf on
Sunday and persist through early Monday. A strong cold front will
move off the Texas coast Monday night, extend from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday, then move across the
SE Gulf by Wednesday. Gale force northerly winds are expected
west of the front near the coast of Mexico on Tuesday through
Wednesday. Winds and seas will diminish over the central Gulf by
Thursday and Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging continues to sit over most of the Caribbean.
Meanwhile, mid-level troughing extends from the western Atlantic
to the Windward Passage, which is helping the mid-level ridge to
retreat to the central Atlantic. This is giving way to scattered
moderate convection is seen over the eastern Dominican Republic
from 17N- 20N between 67W- 71W. Puerto Rico and the USVI are also
seeing scattered showers across the region. A surface trough is
analyzed from 12N78W to 18N78W with no significant convection
associated with it. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh
trades north of Colombia with gentle to moderate trades across the
central and western Caribbean. Fresh trades are noted in the
eastern Caribbean.

Moderate easterly winds will prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean through Sunday. Winds and seas will increase
east of 80W Sunday night through early next week as high pressure
builds north of the area. A strong cold front will cross the
Yucatan Channel by Wednesday, extend from western Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras on Wednesday night, then stall and weaken over
the NW Caribbean Thursday and Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 15/0300 UTC, a cold front extends into the forecast waters
near 31N73W southwest to the Florida Keys near 25N80W. Two lines
of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead
of the front: one from 27N-31N between 70W-75W, and the other
from 26N-31N between 66W-73W. A surface trough is analyzed in the
central Atlantic from 22N49W to 27N48W with scattered moderate
convection noted near this feature from 22N-25N between 46W-50W.
An upper level trough continues to slide eastward toward NE
Africa. This is producing scattered showers over Western Sahara,
Morocco, and the Canary Islands from 23N-31N between 11W-22W.
Latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale force winds
behind the cold front, mostly N of 29N between 75W-78W. Moderate
to fresh winds are seen ahead of the front.

The cold front will quickly pass eastward across the northern
waters through Sunday, with strong southerly flow persisting
ahead of the front N of 28N. The front will stall and weaken east
of the area Sunday night and Monday. A stronger cold front will
move off the southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday night, and extend
from near 31N70W across the NW Bahamas to central Cuba on
Wednesday night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are
expected across much of the region following frontal passage. The
front will cross the southern Bahamas on Thursday, then stall
over the central waters on Thursday night.

Farther east, Meteo France is noting westerly near gale force
winds can be expected near Agadir over the next day.

$$
AKR
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