[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1221 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N13W to 06N16W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 04N24W to 05N31W to N Brazil
near 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-06N between
13W-24W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N
between 24W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N
between 40W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC...a 1007 mb low is centered near Tallahassee
Florida to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W to 26N93W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf from 26N-31N
between 84W-87W. A 1015 mb high is centered over the W Gulf near
23N96W producing fair weather. In the upper levels a large upper
level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 88W, supporting the
cold front.

The surface low will track NE overnight and pull the cold front
across the eastern Gulf through Sat. High pressure will shift
eastward across northern Florida on Sun, supporting strengthening
return flow over the western Gulf ahead of an approaching cold
front. This strong front will move off the Texas coast on Mon,
extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche on Tue,
then continue moving across the SE Gulf on Wed. Gale force
northerly winds are expected west of the front near the coast of
Mexico late Tue through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the E Caribbean from the Mona Passage
near 18N68W to N Venezuela near 11N68W. Scattered showers are over
the Leeward and Windward Islands. more scattered showers are over
the north central Caribbean N of 15N between 65W-80W. In the upper
levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with strong subsidence.

Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the region tonight
as high pressure over the western Atlantic shifts eastward. Trade
winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will increase early
next week. Fresh trades along with moderate NE swell are expected
in Tropical N Atlantic waters this weekend through early next
week. A cold front will pass over the NW Caribbean Wed and Wed
night, producing strong NE winds and building seas over the
Yucatan Basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the NW
Atlantic N of 23N between 74W-79W, in southerly surface flow. This
convection is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence. A
surface trough is NE of the Leeward Islands from 24N54W to 18N56W.
Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the trough axis. A 1029 mb
high is over the NE Atlantic near 34N24W. Of note in the upper
levels, an upper level trough is over the eastern Atlantic, N of
20N between 35W-50W, producing scattered showers.

Strong to near gale force southerly winds will develop over the
NW Atlantic overnight into Sat ahead of an approaching cold
front. The cold front will move eastward across the northern
waters Sat through Sun, then stall and weaken over the NE portion
Sun night into Mon. A stronger cold front will move off the
southeast U.S. coast and across the waters Tue night through Wed
night, resulting in strong northerly winds and building seas.

$$
Formosa
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