[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast and enter the Gulf of
Mexico on Tuesday. The 18-hour forecast position for the cold
front is: 29N90W to 20N96.5W. Expect the N gale-force winds, and
sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, within 21N96W to
22N98W to 27N97W to 30N94W to 27N94W to 21N96W. This gale-force
wind event will be ongoing until Wednesday night. Please read the
HIGH SEAS FORECAST, MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the OFFSHORE
FORECAST, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, issued by the National Hurricane
Center, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N20W to 01N28W. The ITCZ continues from
01N28W, to the Equator along 31W, and continuing along the Equator
to 39W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ from 40W eastward, and to the south of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ from 28W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 28N80W, just off the eastern coast
of Florida in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida, to the central
sections of the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico today,
and extend from the Florida Big Bend into the SW Gulf of Mexico
by Wednesday. Gale-force NW to N winds are expected to the west
of the front along the coast of Mexico from tonight through
Wednesday. The front will stall from the Florida Peninsula to the
SW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. The front will move northward,
gradually, across the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a warm front on
Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 23N64W, across the Virgin Islands,
to 15N67W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 15N to 23N
between 63W and 67W.

Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. Satellite data and the GFS forecast for 250 mb show upper
level anticyclonic wind flow in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. The GFS model forecasts for 500 mb and for 700 mb show NE
wind flow across the same area. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 150 nm of the coast from 17N southward,
from Honduras to Panama.

Strong high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will
dominate the region through Wednesday. Expect building sea heights
and fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean Sea, and in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean, through mid-
week. The wind speeds and the sea heights will subside across the
region gradually, on Thursday and Friday, as the high pressure
area weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N38W to 31N40W. The front becomes
a dissipating stationary front from 31N40W to 27N50W 26N54W and
21N62W. A surface trough is within 60 nm to 120 nm to the NW of
the cold front/stationary front, from 44W eastward. The surface
continues along 31N between 44W and 60W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong between the frontal boundary and the
surface trough between 49W and 55W, and within 180 nm to the NW of
the dissipating stationary front between 59W and 62W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere between the frontal boundary and the surface
trough from 64W eastward.

An upper level trough is along 22N31W 18N33W 12N33W 08N36W. High
level clouds are within 360 nm and beyond to the east of the
trough.

Strong high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will
support a large area of fresh easterly winds to the northeast of
the Bahamas today. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S.A.
coast on Wednesday, and then stall and weaken in the northern
waters on Thursday and Friday.

$$
MT
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