[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast and enter the Gulf of
Mexico on Tuesday. Behind the front, strong to gale force NW to N
winds are expected Tuesday night in the far western Gulf near the
coast of Mexico, mainly south of 24N between 92W-97W. The gales
will spread south to the waters offshore of Veracruz for
Wednesday. Seas will range between 11-16 ft. This gale event will
be ongoing through Wednesday afternoon. See the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to
01N29W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 03N-08N E of 19W to the coast of Liberia
and Sierra Leone. Isolated convection is seen along the monsoon
trough and ITCZ between 22W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough is analyzed across the eastern Gulf from 26N88W to
30N84W with some showers along it. High pressure extends from the
north- central Atlantic into the Gulf. The latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds in the western Gulf
with gentle to moderate east-southeast winds in the eastern Gulf.

Fresh to locally strong S return flow prevails across the W Gulf
ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front will move into the
NW Gulf on Tuesday, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the
Bay of Campeche by Wednesday. Gale force NW to N winds are
expected west of the front along the coast of Mexico Tuesday
night through Wednesday. The front will stall from the Florida
peninsula to the Bay of Campeche Thursday, then gradually lift
northward across the E Gulf as a warm front on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers continue along the coast of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. Isolated thunderstorms are seen right along the coast of
southeast Cuba. Otherwise, deep ridging continues to keep
convection at a minimum. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh
trades in the eastern half of the Caribbean with light to moderate
trades in the western half.

A strong Bermuda High will dominate the SW North Atlantic through
Wednesday. Trades will increase to near gale force just north of
the Colombian coast late tonight. Elsewhere, expect building seas
and fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through mid-week. As
the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward Thursday through
Friday, winds and seas will gradually subside across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front continues to sink southward across the central and
western Caribbean, analyzed from 31N52W to 28N63W to 28N68W. The
tail-end of the front stalls from 28N68W to 31N73W. Showers are
seen along this boundary. The stationary front in the central
Atlantic continues to be draped from 21N66W to 31N45W with a 1018
mb along the front near 28N53W. Showers with isolated
thunderstorms are seen within 150 nm of this boundary between 44W-
67W. High pressure continues to dominate the eastern Atlantic,
anchored by a 1033 mb high near 40N14W. The latest scatterometer
data depicts fresh to strong winds in the western Atlantic from
21N-31N between 60W-71W.

The stationary front draped across the NE waters will weaken
later today. Fresh to strong easterly flow will persist across the
waters northeast of the Bahamas today as a strong Bermuda High
passes eastward across the western Atlantic. A cold front is
expected to move off the SE United States coast Wednesday, then
stall and weaken over the N waters Thursday into Friday.

$$
AKR
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