[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A cold front will move off Texas and
enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Behind the front, gale force
NW to N winds are expected Tuesday night in the far western Gulf
near the coast of Mexico, mainly south of 24N. The gales will
spread southward to the waters offshore of Veracruz for Wednesday.
See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 07N11W to 04N16W to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 02N24W to
00N30W to 00N43W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 00N-08N between 09W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An E-W warm front extends from near the Big Bend of Florida to
near Tallahassee to just north of Pensacola. A N-S surface trough
is along 86/87W from 25N-30N. Isolated showers are north of 28.5N
between 85W-86W, including near Apalachicola and Panama City.

Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will prevail today
into tonight across the western Gulf ahead of a strong cold front.
This cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Tue, then extend
from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon.
Gale force NW to N winds are expected west of the front along the
coast of Mexico Tue night through Wed. See special features
section above for more details on the Gale Warning. The front
will stall from central Florida to the SW Gulf Thu, then gradually
lift northward across the eastern Gulf as a warm front on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and tstorms continue along the east coast of
Nicaragua and waters from 10N-16N between 82W-84W. The latest
ASCAT data from Sunday evening depicts fresh trades north of
Colombia and over portions of the south-central and southwest
basin, with moderate trades throughout the rest of the basin.

Strong high pressure will dominate the SW North Atlantic through
Wed. Winds will increase to near gale force speeds near the coast
of Colombia late tonight. Elsewhere, expect building seas and
fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
through mid week. High pressure will weaken and shift eastward
Thu through Fri, allowing winds and seas to gradually subside
across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends just off the Florida coast from 32N79W to
30N81W. A warm front continues from 30N81W to St. Augustine
Florida to the Big Bend of Florida. A cold front is sinking
southward from 32N54W to 28N64W to 29N69W, continuing as
stationary to 32N76W. Isolated showers are seen along both of
these features. The most recent ASCAT pass from late Sunday
evening shows strong anticyclonic surface winds north of 22N
between 59W-76W.

A little farther east, a cold front extends from 32N47W to a 1018
mb low near 27N53W to 23N60W, then stationary to 22N64W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the low, and along and
behind the front from 29N-32N between 46W-51W. High pressure
dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1034 mb high near
36N22W.

The stationary front from 29N69W to 32N76W will weaken later
today. Fresh to strong easterly flow will persist across the
waters NE of the Bahamas today as strong high pressure passes
eastward across the western Atlantic. A cold front is expected to
move off the southeast U.S. coast Wed and Wed night, then stall
and weaken over the northern waters Thu into Fri.

$$
Hagen
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