[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
612 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N09W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 02N37W to
07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the coast of
Liberia extending offshore to about 280 nm, and additional
activity is seen from 02N-07N between 17W-22W along the monsoon
trough. North of the ITCZ, scattered showers are possible with
broken to overcast mix of clouds west of 32W to the coast of
Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb low is off the Mississippi coast near 30N89W with a
stationary front extending east of the low to the Big Bend of
Florida near 29N83W. A stationary front also extends south of the
low to the central Gulf near 27N89W. A trough is also near this
system, analyzed from 26N86W to the low. Showers are seen near
these features but no organized convective activity is ongoing.
The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh south-
southeasterly winds to the southeast of the low with light to
gentle winds elsewhere.

Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will develop Monday
in the W Gulf ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front will
move into the NW Gulf on Tuesday, then extend from the Florida
Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday afternoon. Gale
force NW to N winds are possible west of the front along the coast
of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. The front will stall from
N Florida to the SW Gulf Thursday, and weaken through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep layered ridging is present over the Caribbean. This is
inhibiting most convection, with low-topped showers seen across
the Lesser Antilles westward into Puerto Rico. Isolated convection
is seen off the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama from
09N-15N between 80W-84W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh trades north of Colombia with gentle to moderate trades
throughout the rest of the basin.

A weak Bermuda High is promoting generally moderate to fresh
trades across the region through early Monday. Winds will
strengthen and seas will build over the central and eastern
Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlantic Monday afternoon
through Wednesday night as a stronger Bermuda High dominates the
SW North Atlantic. Conditions are likely to again become more
quiescent on Thursday, as the high moves well to the east of the
waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two fronts are in the western Atlantic: a stationary front
extends just off the Florida coast from 31N79W to 30N81W and a
cold front is sinking southward from 31N63W to 31N76W. A surface
trough is also to the east of the Bahamas from 26N74W to 29N76W.
Showers are seen along each of these features. A stationary front
continues to be draped across the central Atlantic from 31N54W to
21N68W with scattered moderate convection seen from 24N-31N
between 48W-59W. A trough is also seen in the central Atlantic
from 12N49W to 18N60W. High pressure dominates the rest of the
basin anchored by a 1033 mb high near 36N24W.

Fresh to strong easterly flow will develop across the waters
northeast of the Bahamas tonight through Monday as a strong
Bermuda High passes eastward across the western Atlantic. A cold
front is expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast Wednesday
and Wednesday night, then stall and dissipate over the northern
waters Thursday into Thursday night.


$$
AKR
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