[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N10W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N43W to
03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N-06N between
05W-23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb low is located over the eastern Gulf near 28N87W. A
stationary front extends from Cedar Keys Florida to the low to
26N90W to the coast of NE Mexico near 25N98W. A surface trough
extends southward from the low to 22N87W. Another surface trough
extends northwestward from the low to near Mobile Alabama.
Isolated showers are possibly occurring near the low, troughs, and
eastern portion of the stationary front over the NE Gulf of
Mexico. The most recent ASCAT pass from Saturday night shows
moderate winds in the NE Gulf with gentle wind speeds across much
of the remainder of the basin.

The weak stationary front extending from near the Florida Big
Bend SW across the central Gulf will dissipate later today. Fresh
to locally strong southerly return flow will develop Mon into Mon
night ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front will push into
the NW Gulf on Tue, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the
Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon. Gale force N winds are possible
west of the front along the coast of Mexico Tue night and Wed. The
front will likely stall across the Gulf and begin weakening Thu
and Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging at 500 mb prevails across much of the Caribbean. Upper-
level divergence that extends northward from the east Pacific
monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the
SW Caribbean south of 16N between 80W-84W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are also south of 10N between 75W-80W. Isolated to
scattered showers and tstorms are also seen near and over
Hispaniola, enhanced by moisture from the tail end of a
stationary front that ends over the Atlantic near 21N67W. The
latest ASCAT pass from Saturday evening shows fresh trades in the
south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh N-NE
winds are seen off the east coast of Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras, with similar winds also seen in the Windward Passage.

Generally moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the
region through early Mon. Winds will strengthen and seas will
build over the central and eastern Caribbean Mon through Wed as a
strong high pressure ridge dominates the SW North Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 08/0900 UTC, a stationary front is over the western
Atlantic from 32N71W to Daytona Beach Florida. Isolated showers
are near the front. A weak 1018 mb low is near 28N73W with a
surface trough extending southward from the low to 24N72W.
Isolated showers are from 26N-30N between 69W-74W. A stationary
front extends from 32N51W to 29N54W to 26N61W to 21N67W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the stationary
front, north of 25N and east of 61W. The remainder of the eastern
Atlantic is under surface high pressure ridging, anchored by a
1034 mb high near 36N26W.

The stationary front over the far northern waters will lift
northward as a warm front later today. Fresh to strong easterly
flow will develop across the waters northeast of the Bahamas
tonight through Mon as strong high pressure passes eastward across
the western Atlantic. A strong cold front is expected to move off
the southeast U.S. coast Wed and Wed night, then stall over the
northern waters Thu into Thu night.

$$
Hagen
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