[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061815
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N11W to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 02N24W to
02N34W to 01N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along
the monsoon trough from 00N-07N between the coast of Sierra
Leone and Libera between 08W-22W and a scattered shower activity
present in the vicinity of the ITCZ. West of 40W, plenty of drier
air is evident in the mid and low levels in the latest water vapor
imagery with little to no convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb ridge is centered near 33N80W and extends from the
western Atlantic west into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. No
significant convection is seen over the basin with light to
moderate SE wind across the Central Gulf. Scattered showers are
starting to develop over central Gulf 25N-26N between 80W-90W.

Weak low pressure will form south of Mobile along a cold front
that will move into the northern Gulf this afternoon. The front
will become stationary Fri night, with the low weakening to a
trough on Sun. A stronger cold front will move into the NW Gulf on
Tue followed by strong north to northeast winds and building
seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Windward Passage to 19N74W,
then continues as a shear line from that point to the SW Caribbean
Sea. Most of the convection along the stationary front and the
shear line have diminished with the exception of more activity
scattered moderate isolated strong convection concentrated south
of 13N between 80w-83W along the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica,
and Panama. Isolated moderate convection is seen over parts of
Jamaica.

Fresh northeast to east trades will remain across most of the
region through Sun night, except for fresh to strong winds along
and near the coast of Colombia. Strong high pressure building
north of the area will allow for winds and seas to increase early
next week over much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Long-
period northeast to east swell will begin to propagate through the
Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N59W to 26N70W and curves NW
to 28N79W. ahead of this front, a stationary front extends from
31N53W southwest to the NE Bahamas and the Windward Passage.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 200
nm to the SE of the cold front from 23N northward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm on either side of the
stationary front from 20N to 23N.

A stationary front will gradually weaken through Sat night. The
cold front behind it will quickly move southeast and merge with
the northern part of the stationary front east of the area by
early Sat evening. The western part of the cold front will be left
behind as a trough over the northwest waters Sat night into early
Sun. The trough will move back to the west-northwest from Sun
afternoon through Mon as strong high pressure builds southward
across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. The
resultant tight gradient will bring increasing winds along with
building seas over these same waters from about Sun afternoon
through at least Mon evening. These conditions are expected to
begin to diminish thereafter into Wed as the next cold front is
expected to move into the far northwest waters late Tue night, and
reach from near 31N72W to near west-central Cuba by late on Wed.
Strong north to northeast winds will follow behind this front.

$$
Torres
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