[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061128
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1110 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to
02N35W, to 01N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 250 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
between 20W and 35W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from the monsoon trough southward from 24W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb coastal South Carolina
high pressure center that is near 33N80W, into the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans
the Gulf of Mexico.

An area of weak low pressure will form the south of Mobile
Alabama, along a cold front that will be moving into the northern
Gulf of Mexico later today. The front will become stationary on
Friday night. The low pressure center will weaken into a surface
trough on Sunday. A comparatively stronger cold front will move
into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through 21N70W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to the Windward Passage. A shear line continues from the Windward
Passage to 16N80W in the Caribbean Sea, toward the SE coast of
Nicaragua. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within
45 nm of the coast of Colombia, from 09.5N southward between the
coast of Colombia along 76W and the coast of Panama along 78W,
including the Gulf of Uraba, and within 100 nm of the coast
between 80W near Panama and 84W near Nicaragua. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 16N southward from 75W westward, and in parts of
Jamaica and Hispaniola.

Fresh trade winds will prevail across most of the region through
Sunday night. Strong high pressure, that is building north of the
area, will cause the winds and the seas to increase early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N55W to 27N60W, to 21N70W, to
the Windward Passage. A shear line continues from the Windward
Passage to 16N80W in the Caribbean Sea, toward the SE coast of
Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong is within 200 nm to the SE of the cold front
from 23N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within
60 nm on either side of the stationary front from 20N to 23N.

A second cold front is to the NW/NNW of the 32N55W stationary
front, ranging from 200 nm to 300 nm away on the northern end of
the front, to 300 nm to 400 nm at the southern end of the front.
Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm to
the S and SE of the front.

A third cold front is moving across parts of Morocco, the Western
Sahara, and Mauritania. The cold front extends from a 1010 mb low
pressure center, near 28N12W, that is just off the coast of
southern Morocco, into Africa, to the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W. The cold front becomes dissipating from 20N16W, to 19N24W,
21N32W, and 24N36W. A surface trough continues from 24N36W to
30N40W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.
Scatterometer winds close to the time of 06/0000 UTC were showing
30 knots within 400 nm of the 1010 mb low pressure center in the
NW quadrant. Scatterometer winds of at least 20 knots or faster
were covering the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 30W
eastward.

The current 32N55W cold front is starting to become weaker with
time. The forecast is for continued weakening. The front will
stall and become diffuse across the area by tonight. Fresh to
strong NE winds are expected in the NW waters on Sunday. Strong
high pressure will build into the central Atlantic Ocean on Sunday
and Monday. The winds and the seas will be increasing in the northern
and northeastern waters.

$$
MT
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