[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1159 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N30W to 03N40W to
01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 390 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 25W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure ridging covers most of the Gulf, anchored by
a 1017 mb high near 24N93W. A weak surface trough is in the SW
Gulf near the coast of Mexico from 19N96W to 23N98W. No
significant convection is seen over the basin.

High pressure will persist over the western and central Gulf
through late this afternoon, then shift east of the area Thu ahead
of the next cold front entering the northwest Gulf on Fri. Weak
low pressure may form along the frontal boundary late Fri into Sat
over the north central Gulf, then lift north of the area through
Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 04/1500 UTC, a cold front passes from the N coast of the
Dominican Republic near 20N70.5W to 17N77W to the NE coast of
Honduras near 16N84W, continuing as a stationary front to central
Guatemala near 16N90W. Isolated showers and tstorms are along and
within 240 nm ahead of the front, including over the waters south
of Hispaniola and SW of Jamaica. Surface ridging and drier air are
moving into the NW Caribbean behind the front. In the far SW
Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered
moderate convection south of 11N and west of 79W.

The cold front will become stationary early this afternoon and
dissipate tonight. High pressure currently across the Gulf of
Mexico will slide east-northeastward and build north of the area
Thu night and Fri, with the associated pressure gradient
increasing the trades. Northwest to north swell will continue to
impact the Atlantic waters and Atlantic passages through the next
few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A forming reinforcing cold front enters the area from 32N73W and
extends to 28.5N78W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the
front. Strong W-NW winds are behind the front. Plenty of cloud
cover is ahead of the front, but there is no evidence of any
significant showers. A cold front enters the central Atlantic near
32N52W to 26N60W to 24N65W to 21N70W to central Hispaniola.
Scattered moderate convection is north of 27N between 47W-54W.
Isolated moderate convection is along and ahead of the front from
19N-25N between 60W-69W. Farther E, a cold front extends from
32N19W to 30N25W to 30N31W. ASCAT shows fresh N to NE winds within
90 nm N of the front.

The cold front from 24N65W to central Hispaniola will become
stationary early this afternoon, then gradually dissipate through
Thu afternoon. The reinforcing cold front will sweep eastward
across the waters north of 27N tonight through early Thu, followed
by weak high pressure moving off the Carolinas north of the area.
Yet another cold front will move into the region from the north,
reaching as far south as 27N by Sat night and becoming stationary
through Sun night. Strong high pressure will build southward Sun,
resulting in strong northeast to east winds and building seas.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net