[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021143
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front is passing through 31N80W to 30N81W. Within
30.5N76.5W to 30.5N78W to 30.5N80W to 31N80W to 31N76.5W to
30.5N76.5W...SW to W winds 30 to 35 knots, and sea heights ranging
from 12 feet to 14 feet in NE swell. The 24-hour forecast position
of the cold front is: from 31N67W to 22N78W. Within 27N64W to
26N74W to 31N67W to 31N57W to 27N64W...SW winds 25 to 35 knots,
and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet in NW to N swell.
Expect that the wind speeds will be less than gale-force at 48
hours, meaning by Tuesday night before Wednesday morning.
Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and
the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W, to 04N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N22W, to 02N37W, to 01N39W, and 01N43W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to widely scattered moderate and
locally strong within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 20W
and 40W. Isolated moderate within 30 nm to the south of the ITCZ,
and from 03N to 07N between 40W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the NE corner of Florida, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, to a SW Gulf of Mexico 1016 mb low
pressure center that is near 23N96W. The front continues to the
coast of Mexico, along 96W just to the south of 20N. A surface
trough is about 100 nm to the SE of the front between the Florida
coast and 93W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds are from 27N southward from 90W westward. Rainshowers are
possible within 210 nm to the SE of the rest of the cold front.

Broad upper level W to NW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
The upper level wind flow is cyclonic, from 24N northward from 90W
eastward, in agreement with the deep layer trough that is
supporting the current cold front.

The current cold front will move to the south of the southeast
Gulf of Mexico today. High pressure will build behind the front,
into the central Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday and Wednesday. The
high pressure will shift to the east of the area on Thursday,
ahead of the next cold front that is entering the northwest Gulf
of Mexico late on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery and the GFS model for 250 mb show an
anticyclonic circulation center along the central border sections
of Honduras and Nicaragua. Broad anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea, from Central America, toward 70W. Weak upper level
cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Caribbean Sea from
70W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N southward
between 63W and 71W.

Low pressure, moving E from the U.S.A., has weakened the ridge
that is to the N of the basin. Large N swell, that is passing
through the Atlantic passages into the NE Caribbean Sea, will
diminish by Tuesday night. A cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean Sea tonight, and then weaken and dissipate from eastern
Cuba to NE Nicaragua, by Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is passing through 31N80W to 30N81W. Within
30.5N76.5W to 30.5N78W to 30.5N80W to 31N80W to 31N76.5W to
30.5N76.5W...SW to W winds 30 to 35 knots, and sea heights ranging
from 12 feet to 14 feet in NE swell. The 24-hour forecast position
of the cold front is: from 31N67W to 22N78W. Within 27N64W to
26N74W to 31N67W to 31N57W to 27N64W...SW winds 25 to 35 knots,
and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet in NW to N swell.
Expect that the wind speeds will be less than gale-force at 48
hours, meaning by Tuesday night before Wednesday morning.
Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and
the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

A dissipating cold front passes through 32N38W to 24N49W, and to
24N47W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 24N49W to
22N56W, and to 20N63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong within 240 nm to the east of the frontal boundary
from 28N northward, and within 60 nm on either side of the front
between 48W and 52W.

A surface trough is along 55W/56W from 19N southward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
16N to 20N between 50W and 60W. Isolated moderate from 12N
southward between 52W and 61W.

The current cold front, that is moving off the northeast Florida
coast, will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba early on Tuesday.
The front will stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba by early
Wednesday, before dissipating on Thursday. The wind speeds to
gale-force will accompany the front in the waters north of 29N
through tonight. Large, long-period N swell, that is spreading S
across the Atlantic Ocean waters, will persist through Tuesday.

$$
MT
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