[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast into the
western Atlantic waters by early Monday. This front will enhance
the winds across the area, reaching strong to gale force range on
either side of the front mainly north of 30N beginning tonight
and continue through Tuesday night. Seas will range from 12-16 ft
in that area. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
06N11W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N47W.
Scattered showers are noted from the coast of Africa to 33W and
an area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
from 01N-07N between 33W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1200 UTC, cold front has moved off the Texas coast extending
from the Florida Panhandle to South Padre Island, Texas. Latest
vis satellite shows a roll cloud ahead of the front with a 100 to
180 nm of overcast stratus clouds behind it. ASCAT indicate a
moderate to fresh NW wind already over the NW Gulf as of this
morning behind the front. In the Bay of Campeche, surface trough
has moved off the Yucatan Peninsula and extends from 23N90W to
19N93W. No significant convection is associated with this trough.
The ESE portion of the Gulf is under the influence of a ridge
that extends into the area from the western Atlantic. ASCAT show
light to moderate S to SE flow across the SE Gulf.

The cold front will reach from near Tampa Florida to Tampico
Mexico tonight, followed by fresh to strong NW winds over the
northeast Gulf. The front will sweep south of the southeast Gulf
Mon, and high pressure will build over the central Gulf behind the
front through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep ridging extends across most of the basin which is inhibiting
deep convection. A stationary front over the central Atlantic
extends SW into the U.S. Virgin Islands enhancing scattered
showers and tstorms in the area. Some scattered showers are
present from Haiti SW to the SW Caribbean. The latest scatterometer
data and surface observation depict moderate to fresh trades in
the central and NW Caribbean, while gentle to moderate trades
prevail elsewhere.

High pressure building north of the area is allowing moderate to
occasionally fresh northeasterly winds across most of the Caribbean,
while large northerly swell is moving through the Atlantic passages
in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will veer more easterly and
diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of
another cold front expected to move into the Yucatan Channel Tue
morning. The front will stall and eventually dissipate from the
Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information about the
developing gale in the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N40W to
21N53W, then transitions to a stationary front at that point to
18N65W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
along and 250 nm ahead of the front mainly north of 26N. Surface
ridging is building in the wake of the front, anchored by a 1018
mb high centered 27N70W. To the south, a surface trough is
analyzed from 15N53W to 08N52W with scattered showers along and
east of it. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
southerly winds ahead of the front, N of 23N between 30W-46W.

High pressure building north of the area is allowing moderate to
occasionally fresh northeasterly winds across most of the
Caribbean, while large northerly swell is moving through the
Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will veer more
easterly and diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts
eastward, ahead of another cold front expected to move into the
Yucatan Channel Tue morning. The front will stall and eventually
dissipate from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua through
mid week.

$$
MMT
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