[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 30
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
543 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Tropical Storm Watch Issued For Indian River, Saint Lucie and Martin
 Counties**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Indian River,
      Martin, and St. Lucie

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Indian River, Martin,
      and St. Lucie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 410 miles east-southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about
      360 miles east of Stuart FL
    - 26.2N 74.4W
    - Storm Intensity 150 mph
    - Movement West or 280 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Major Hurricane Dorian is forecast to move westward. approaching the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, then reduce its forward speed and
move very slowly through the islands beginning Sunday night. By Monday,
powerful Dorian will be moving northwest toward the central Florida
Atlantic waters. As Dorian slowly begins to make its closest approach
to the east central Florida coast, the hurricane will make a turn
toward the north-northwest.

Since there is still uncertainty with the track forecast, east central
Florida remains under the threat of direct impacts from Dorian. These
impacts include a high likelihood of battering waves and significant
wave runup along the coast, especially during times of high tide.
Damaging winds and flooding rain are also significant concerns. A
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Indian River, Saint Lucie,
and Martin Counties. Preparations should be completed through Sunday.

Dorian will be a major hurricane of Category 3 or 4 intensity as it
makes it closest approach to east central Florida. While the current
forecast keeps the center of Dorian offshore, persons along the
Treasure Coast should prepare for Tropical Storm conditions arriving
prior to sunrise on Monday. Farther north, tropical Storm conditions
are forecast to arrive in Brevard County by Monday night, and Volusia
County by Tuesday.

Gusts to Tropical Storm force will be possible across interior areas,
especially in passing squalls, as the Dorian makes its nearest
approach to the central Florida early next week. {insert wind CTA
here]

Along the coast, large battering waves and increasing surf will begin
to impact the beaches Sunday with an increasing risk for major beach
erosion and coastal flooding during the times of high tides Sunday
morning around 10 AM, Sunday night around 1030 PM, around noon on
Monday, and Monday evening around 11 PM.

Elevated water levels with high surf and wind driven piling of water
along the coast will cause moderate to severe erosion of dunes and the
risk of coastal flooding. In some areas, wave runup may overtop dunes
and cause coastal flooding to portions of the barrier islands. Strong
north winds may also develop, bringing the risk of coastal flooding
along low lying properties along the intracoastal waterways. If
evacuation orders are issued for your area, heed official
instructions.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida with storm total
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum isolated rainfall amounts
to 12 inches near the east coast. Flash flooding is possible with
river flooding also likely to develop.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:

     - The most significant impacts from Dorian will be felt along
       coastal areas. The combination of wind driven runup of waves and
       elevated waters levels will produce a significant risk of
       moderate to severe beach erosion and coastal inundation, and
       breaching of dunes in some areas. Round pounding surf and
       numerous strong rip currents will make any attempt to enter the
       surf potentially deadly.

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
Indian river, Saint Lucie and Martin Counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers
      in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts, mainly across the coastal counties of Brevard, Indian River,
Saint Lucie and Martin Counties. Potential impacts include:

    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Some locations may experience expanded areas of urban inundation
      at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some
      streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and
      retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous.
      Some road and bridge closures.

* SURGE:
Prepare for local storm surge of up to 2 feet having limited impacts
along the coast from flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. This will enhance
the water runup along the beaches around the times of high tides.
Potential impacts include:

    - Localized inundation along immediate shorelines and in low-lying
      spots.
    - Moderate to severe beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching
      dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Numerous strong rip
      currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local officials for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage
area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or
flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:

- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 Midnight.

$$
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