[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 30/1500 UTC, is near 24.5N
69.8W. This position also is about 415 nm/770 km to the east of
the NW Bahamas, and also about 575 nm/1060 km to the east of West
Palm Beach in Florida. DORIAN is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 9
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 115
knots. Numerous strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from
23N to 26N between 68W and 71W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 21N to 28N between 60W and
75W. Dorian will continue across the northern Bahamas toward
Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane through early
Monday, before moving inland into Florida by early Tuesday.
The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header
WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 21N
southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Monsoon trough related
precipitation is within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough
from 42W eastward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from 23N southward,
moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area that goes from 19N to 27N between 49W
and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W to 11N30W to 13N42W and 12N48W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are within 480 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough from 30W eastward, and within 240 nm to the north
of the monsoon trough from 42W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 32N75W, in the Atlantic Ocean,
to Florida near 29N82W, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, and
beyond SW coastal Louisiana. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are to the northwest of the line that
runs through 32N73W to the coast of Florida along 27N/28N.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the coastal waters of SW
Louisiana.

A 500 mb to 700 mb inverted trough is across Florida. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N
southward from 87W eastward.

An inverted trough is along the coast of Texas, at 500 mb and at
700 mb. Broad cyclonic wind flow is at 250 mb, along the coast of
Texas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N to 28N from 94W
westward.

Hurricane Dorian is near 24.5N 69.8W 972 mb at 11 AM EDT, moving
NW 9 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with
gusts to 115 knots. Dorian will intensify to a major hurricane as
it moves to 25.3N 71.0W by this evening. Dorian will reach the
northern Bahamas near by Sunday evening, then continue across the
northern Bahamas toward Florida as an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through early Monday. Dorian will move inland into
Florida by early Tuesday. It is possible that the effects from
Dorian may be felt starting in parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico
as early as Monday. Elsewhere, a separate low pressure center
will move westward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today,
into the south central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and then into
the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1012 mb low pressure center is in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea near 21N83W. A surface trough is along 82W/83W from 16N to
24N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that
runs from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 73W in Colombia, beyond
85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Costa Rica.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 30 nm on
either side of the line from 09.5N79.5W at the coast of Panama,
to 10N80W, to 11N82W.

Hurricane Dorian is moving across the Atlantic Ocean
NE of Dominican Republic. A tropical wave will enter the
Caribbean Sea by Saturday evening, and across the islands on
Sunday morning. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the
east and central Caribbean Sea, with gentle to moderate winds
in the NW Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the
Bahamas near 24N77W, to the west of Hurricane Dorian. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are to the east of Florida, from 27N
southward from 75W westward.

Hurricane Dorian is near 24.5N 69.8W, 972 mb, at 11 AM EDT,
moving NW 9 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 95 knots
with gusts to 115 knots. Dorian will intensify into a major
hurricane, as it moves to 25.3N 71.0W by this evening. Dorian will
continue to move toward 25.9N 72.7W on Saturday morning; near
26.3N 74.5W by Saturday evening; near 26.6N 76.1W by Sunday
morning; then into the northern Bahamas near 26.7N 77.5W by Sunday
evening. Dorian will continue across the northern Bahamas toward
Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane through early
Monday, before moving inland into Florida by early Tuesday.

$$
MT
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