[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian centered near 23.3N 68.4W at 30/0300 UTC or 260
nm ENE of the Southeastern Bahamas moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection extends from 22N-26N between 64W-71W. The NW
motion will continue through Friday. A west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue
into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the
Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight
and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and
move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.
Dorian is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane on Friday,
and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 24W from 04N-21N,
is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within
150 nm east of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 51W from 05N-
22N, is moving W at around 10 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the
wave's environment, inhibiting significant convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal near 15N18W to
12N31W to 11N51W. The ITCZ extends from 11N52W to the coast of
Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers are noted within
75 nm on either sides of the monsoon trough mainly east of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from 29N90W to 29N83W with little to no
convection. South of the front, a broad area of low pressure is
centered near 24N81W, with surface trough extending from that
point to 30N78W. Scattered showers and tstorms are over the
Florida Peninsula and adjacent Gulf waters east of 87W. Mainly
gentle winds are noted across the basin in the most recent
scatterometer data.

A surface trough will form in the central Gulf of Mexico this
weekend, with fresh E or NE winds expected in the northern Gulf
during that time, accompanied by increased shower and tstorm
activity. The surface trough will migrate to the western Gulf
early next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Dorian, currently in the
Atlantic, is expected to approach Florida Sunday. Winds and seas
could increase as early as Monday in the far eastern Gulf just
west of Florida due to Dorian's presence.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The effects of the rain bands of Hurricane Dorian over the
northeast Caribbean have diminished this evening. Upper-level
diffluence is enhancing scattered showers over north-central and
west Caribbean mainly north of 18N and west of 71W. In the
southwest Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing
scattered showers south of 12N between 80W-84W. Fair weather
prevails elsewhere. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, while light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere.

During the next several days, moderate to fresh winds are expected
across the east and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
winds over the NW Caribbean. Seas should remain quiescent during
the next several days across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian and the
tropical waves in the Atlantic.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from
30N78W to 26N80W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted with
this trough mainly west of 78W. To the east, an upper- level low
in the central Atlantic is inducing scattered showers and tstorms
from 21N-31N between 48W- 60W. The remainder of the basin is under
the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high
centered near 34N37W.

Hurricane Dorian is expected to move over the Atlantic well east
of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and on Friday,
approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over
portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Dorian is expected to
become a major hurricane on Friday and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through the weekend.

$$

ERA
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