[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281759 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Dorian becomes a hurricane near St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands as of 28/1800 UTC. Hurricane Dorian is centered near
18.3N 65.0W near St. Thomas moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection extends out from the center 215 nm in the northern
semicircle and 80 nm in the southern semicircle. The northwest
motion is expected to continue through the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian should move near the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands and then continue over the open Atlantic
well east of the southeastern Bahamas. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Depression is centered near 33.6N 72.8W at 28/1500 UTC
or 470 nm WNW of Bermuda moving NNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered
strong convection extends out 280 nm in the southern semicircle.
The cyclone is expected to turn northward later today then north-
northeastward early Thursday morning with an increase in forward
speed. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 45W from 21N
southward, is moving W at about 15 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in
the wave's environment at this time, inhibiting convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to
07N30W to 12N45W to 09N50W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
11N61W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present along the
monsoon trough 04N-13N between the coast of Liberia extending W
to 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017
mb high centered near 23N84W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are developing from 26N-29N between 82W-96W. Scatterometer data
depicts light and gentle winds in the southeast Gulf and moderate
northwest winds in the eastern Gulf and in the eastern Bay of
Campeche with the thermal trough.

High pressure will continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Sun
night, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Dorian is producing cloudiness and convection from
Guadalupe to the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. See the
section above for details.

For information about the tropical wave, see the section above
for details.

Dry air covers most of the basin west of 68W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted over the southern Caribbean Sea south of 10N
between 75W-82W near the monsoon trough. Scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong winds just north of Colombia, while
moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central
Caribbean through midweek. The Bermuda high and Colombian low
will promote fresh to strong NE trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean today, but diminish on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on T.S. Dorian, T.S.
Erin, and the tropical wave in the central Atlantic.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from T.D. Erin
to 29N72W to 30N72W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted
north of 27N between 70W-74W, and from 29N-30N between 77W-79W.
An upper-level low near 23N68W is inducing scattered showers from
in the southern Bahamas from 20N-25N between 71W-76W. The
remainder of the basin is under surface ridging, anchored by a
1025 mb high centered near 34N40W.

Tropical Storm Dorian will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N
65.7W late today, move to 20.5N 67.0W Thu morning, 22.4N 68.4W
Thu evening, 24.2N 69.9W Fri morning, and 26.5N 74.0W Sat morning.
Dorian may continue to intensity as it moves toward the northwest
to near 27.7N 77.7W early Sun, and continue toward the west-northwest
near 28.6N 80.3W Mon.

$$
MMTorres
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