[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 16.0N 63.0W at 28/0300
UTC or 240 nm SE of Ponce Puerto Rico moving NW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection extends out from the center 120 nm
in the northern semicircle and 90 nm in the southern semicircle.
The northwest motion is expected to continue through Thu. On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over
Puerto Rico on Wed. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of
Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and
Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Slow strengthening is expected
during the next 12-18 hours, followed by weakening as Dorian
interacts with the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wed night.
Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and
Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Erin is centered near 31.9N 72.1W at 28/0300 UTC
or 370 nm W of Bermuda moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong
convection extends out 180 nm in the southern semicircle. A turn
to the NE with an increase in forward speed is expected on Wed.
The cyclone is expected to acquire extratropical characteristics
Thursday and Thursday night. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's
environment at this time, inhibiting convection.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W from 20N
southward, moving W around 15 kt. Dry air is noted in the wave's
environment, limiting convection over the NW Caribbean. Scattered
showers are noted in the SW Caribbean south of 13N and west of
80W and inland over Panama through Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 10N49W.
Scattered moderate showers are seen from 05N-10N between 10W-30W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen along the coast of
Senegal.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016
mb high centered near 26N86W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate
SE to S winds in the western Gulf, and fresh in the eastern Bay
of Campeche. Light to gentle winds prevail over the E Gulf.

High pressure will continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Sat
night, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and seas generally
under 4 ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Dorian is producing cloudiness and convection in
the E Caribbean east of 67W. See the section above for details.

A tropical wave is along 86W. See the section above for details.

Dry air covers most of the basin west of 67W. Scattered showers
are noted over the south central Caribbean south of 10N between
78W-82W near the monsoon trough. Scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong winds just north of Colombia, while moderate to fresh
trades prevail elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central
Caribbean through midweek. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds
will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Dorian,
T.S. Erin, and the tropical wave in the central Atlantic.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from T.S. Erin
to 29N72W to 26N73W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted north
of 22N between 70W-79W. An upper-level low near 31N53W is
inducing scattered showers from 24N-30N between 49W-56W. The
remainder of the basin is under surface ridging, anchored by a
1026 mb high centered near 36N39W.

Fresh to strong winds south of T.D. Six and east of the surface
trough will diminish to less than 20 kt by Wed evening as T.D. Six
continues moving farther away to the north of the area. Meanwhile,
Tropical Storm Dorian will move northwest exiting the Caribbean
and entering the west Atlantic by late Wed. By Friday, Dorian is
forecast to be near 24N71W, then to near the east coast of
central Florida on Sunday.

$$

ERA
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