[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

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PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-281130-

Tropical Storm Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service San Juan PR  AL052019
1121 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

This product covers PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS

**DORIAN HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BUT IS EXPECTED TO
 STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      for mainland Puerto Rico
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St Croix, St.Thomas,
      St. John, Culebra and Vieques

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 260 miles southeast of San Juan PR or about 170 miles
      southeast of Saint Croix VI
    - 16.0N 63.0W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Based on the latest forecast track, as Tropical Storm Dorian tracks to
the west-northwest, tropical storm force winds are forecast to affect
portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, especially across St. Croix by
Wednesday morning and continuing across southeast Puerto Rico around
noon on Wednesday and moving away from northern Puerto Rico by
Wednesday night. Rain bands associated with Tropical Storm Dorian can
start later tonight into Wednesday morning and continue through at
least Thursday afternoon. Flooding rains are expected now across much
of Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Rough and hazardous seas are anticipated
across most of the regional waters, with the highest seas affecting the
Caribbean waters. Large breaking waves and life threatening rip currents
are expected along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.
Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
      ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
      destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
      increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
      control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across most of Puerto Rico especially the eastern half including
Culebra, Vieques and St. Croix. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.


* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the eastern and southern coasts of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
If you are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or water hazards from
tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation, especially if being
officially recommended. Relocate to a predetermined shelter or safe
destination.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary
actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be
underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency
Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties
which must be taken into account.

Visitors to the area should become familiar with nearby surroundings.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in San Juan PR around 2 AM AST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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