[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dorian centered near 13.2N 59.7W at 27/0300 UTC
or 80 nm ESE of St. Lucia moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 10N-15N between 56W-62W. The west-northwest motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a NW turn
on Wed. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to move near or over the Windward Islands tonight and
move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.  Dorian is forecast
to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over
eastern Hispaniola, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. See
the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Six centered near 31.5N 72.2W at 27/0300 UTC
or 280 nm SE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving E at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection extends outward to 180 nm E of the center and 300 nm S
of the center. Some slight strengthening is expected over the next
day or so and the depression is expected to intensify to a
tropical storm by Tuesday night. The system is expected to
meander through Tuesday before accelerating northeastward Tuesday
night through Wednesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the
wave's environment at this time, limiting convection. Scattered
showers are near the wave axis south of 10N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 06N-22N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Dry air is noted in the wave's environment,
limiting convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted
across the northern portion of the wave, mainly south of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 19N16W to
10N48W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 10N53W. No
significant convection is noted along these boundaries at this
time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1015
mb high centered near 24N84W. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle winds across the basin.

High pressure will continue across the area through Fri night.
The high will maintain moderate to fresh south to southeast winds
over the waters west of 90W, while winds will continue light to
gentle east of 90W through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Dorian is approaching the eastern Caribbean at this
time. See the section above for details.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Refer to
the section above for details.

Dry air covers much of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with locally fresh
winds noted across the central Caribbean between 75W-81W.

Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse over the south-central
Caribbean through midweek. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds
will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Dorian,
Tropical Depression Six and the tropical wave in the E Atlantic.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from T.D. Six
from 30N73W to 27N76W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
north of 26N between 70W-74W. To the east, an upper-level low
near 26N65W is enhancing scattered showers 24N28N between 50W-58W.
A 1019 mb surface high is analyzed near 24N60W.

Aside from T.D. Six near the northern border of the forecast area,
gentle to moderate SE winds will continue across the western
Atlantic during the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Dorian,
currently in the tropical Atlantic, is forecast to move across
the eastern Caribbean Sea as a hurricane by the middle of the
week and move across eastern Hispaniola Wed night into Thu.
Dorian will move N of Hispaniola as a tropical storm Thu, and
track NW across the Bahamas through Sat night. Expect increasing
winds and building seas for those waters affected by Dorian.

$$

ERA
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