[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 13.0N 59.1W at 27/0000 UTC
or 25 nm ESE of Barbados moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is within 60 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle
and 90 nm western semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere within 120 nm of the center, and extends as far as 210
nm east of the center. The west-northwest motion is expected to
continue through Tuesday night, followed by a NW turn on Wed. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move near
or over the Windward Islands this evening and tonight and pass
near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some strengthening is
forecast, and Dorian could become a hurricane by late Tuesday or
Wednesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Six is centered near 31.7N 72.5W or about 255
nm SE of Cape Hatteras at 26/2100 UTC, moving E at 2 kt. Maximum
sustained wind is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and minimum central
pressure is estimated at 1010 mb. Scattered moderate convection
extends outward to 180 nm E of the center and 300 nm S of the
center. A slow E or NE motion is expected during the next day or
so, followed by a northeast acceleration on Wednesday. Some
gradual strengthening is possible during the next day or two, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or
Tuesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the
wave's environment at this time, limiting convection. Scattered
showers are near the wave axis from 06N-09N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 06N-22N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Dry air is noted in the wave's environment,
limiting convection at this time. Scattered showers and tstorms
are near and west of the wave axis, to the west of Jamaica.
Showers and tstorms are also seen from 10N-13N to the east of
Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 19N16W to
10N34W to 10N45W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
sections above, scattered showers are noted from 07N-09N between
45W-47W and near the coast of Africa from 05N-15N east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin. An upper-level
trough that extends from the western Great Lakes to the NE Gulf of
Mexico is supporting scattered showers and tstorms over the
northeast Gulf north of 25N east of 90W. Similar convection is
seen along coastal and inland areas from Florida to southeast
Louisiana. The upper-level trough will support scattered showers
and tstorms over the north-central Gulf waters through early Tue.
The midday Monday ASCAT pass shows moderate SE to S winds across
the western and SW Gulf, with gentle winds in the E Gulf. This
pattern, with similar winds, will continue through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Dorian will impact portions of the eastern
Caribbean tonight through Wed. See sections above for details on
Dorian and the tropical wave along 79W.

Relatively dry air covers much of the Caribbean. Late afternoon
scattered tstorms are seen over Cuba and Hispaniola due to
typical afternoon heating. Scattered moderate convection is seen
over portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. The
East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered tstorms over
northern Colombia. ASCAT from late Monday morning shows strong
trades from 11N-16N between 72W-77W, locally near gale from 12N-
13N between 73W-75.5W.

Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will
increase in areal coverage through Tue, then decrease some Tue
afternoon and increase briefly again Tue night before decreasing
Wed. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the
Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Dorian,
Tropical Depression Six and the tropical wave in the E Atlantic.

A surface trough extends SW from T.D. Six from 31N73W to 28N74.5W
to 27N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen from 26N-32N between 70W-75W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are from 24N-26N between 70W-80W. An upper-level low near
26N65W is inducing scattered showers and tstorms from 23N-27N
between 62W-69W. Another mid-upper level low near 31N53W is
inducing scattered showers and tstorms from 26N-32N between 47W-
59W. Surface troughing is also present in that area. A 1019 mb
surface high is analyzed near 24.5N59W.

Aside from T.D. Six near the northern border of the forecast area,
gentle to moderate SE winds will continue across the western
Atlantic during the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Dorian is
forecast to move north of Hispaniola as a strengthening tropical
storm late this week, reaching the central to northwest Bahamas
Fri night. Expect increasing winds and building seas for those
waters affected by Dorian.

$$
Hagen
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