[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 11.5N 54.2W at 25/2100 UTC
or 330 nm ESE of Barbados moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 10N-13N between 53W-55W. Isolated moderate convection is
elsewhere from 08N-14N between 51W-57W. Dorian is expected to be
near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Additional
strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian
could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern
Caribbean Sea. The Public Advisories on Tropical Storm DORIAN are
issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCPAT5. The Marine Forecast on Tropical Storm DORIAN are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

A 1011 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N76W. A
surface trough extends SW from the low to near Lake Okeechobee
Florida at 27N81W, to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 25N86W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 26N- 31N between 70W-78W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within
the next few days while the system moves slowly northeastward well
offshore of the southeastern United States. Interests along the
coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft mission is scheduled to investigate the system on Monday.
The chance for tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours is
high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 06N-20N, moving
W 10 at knots. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-10N
between 26W-38W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 08N-21N, moving W
at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is over Hispaniola from 18N-20N between 71W-73W. Similar
convection is over NW Venezuela from 09N-12N between 68W-72W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W from 07N-22N, moving W
at 10-15 knots. Widely scattered moderate convection is inland
from the Yucatan Peninsula to N Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W to the Cabo Verde Islands near 17N25W to
10N35W to 10N45W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical
wave section, widely scattered moderate convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 05N-15N between 07W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a surface trough is over the SE Gulf of Mexico.
The remainder of the Gulf has southerly return flow. Scattered
moderate convection is over the NW Gulf and S Texas from 25N-30N
between 89W-99W.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through Thu
night. The high will maintain moderate to fresh south to southeast
winds over the waters west of 90W. Winds will be mainly light to
gentle east of 90W through the period. Upper level disturbances
will keep unsettled weather conditions over much of the NW and
north-central Gulf through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. Besides
the convection already mentioned, scattered moderate convection is
over Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered moderate convection is also inland
over Costa Rica mostly due the the eastern extent of the Eastern
Pacific monsoon trough.

Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will
gradually increase in areal coverage through Mon. Fresh to strong
east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras at
night Mon through Wed. Tropical Storm Dorian is near 11.5N 54.2W
1003 mb at 5 PM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45
kt gusts 55 kt. Dorian will move to 11.8N 55.9W Mon morning, 12.4N
58.2W Mon afternoon, 13.1N 60.3W Tue morning, 14.1N 62.3W Tue
afternoon, and strengthen to a hurricane near 16.4N 66.4W Wed
afternoon. Dorian will weaken to a tropical storm while moving
inland near 18.5N 70.0W Thu afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two Special features are over the Atlantic basin. See above. A
tropical wave is also over the E Atlantic. See above.

A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 27N61W. Of
note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the
W Atlantic near 29N62W. Upper level diffluence SE of the center
is producing scattered moderate convection from 27N-30N between
55W-59W.

A surface low and trough prevails over the NW Atlantic helping
produce scattered scattered moderate convection with strong gusty
winds and rough seas. The trough will shift eastward across the
northern waters. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds
will continue across the area. Tropical Storm Dorian, currently
in the tropical Atlantic, is forecast to move across the eastern
Caribbean Sea as a hurricane by the middle of the week and near
the far southern Atlantic waters as a tropical storm by late in
the week. Expect increasing winds and building over those waters
with the approach of Dorian.

$$
Formosa
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