[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Chantal is centered near 37.1N 40.9W at
23/0900 UTC or 665 nm W of the Azores moving SE at 7 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 1010 mb and maximum sustained wind speed is
25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen
within 120 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Chantal is
forecast to weaken to a remnant low tonight. See the latest NHC
forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22/23W from 21N
southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 09N-14N between 19W-31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51/52W from 06N-21N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Little to no significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time except for scattered
moderate convection from 08N-11N between 45W-49W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73/74W from 21N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are
near the Windward Passage and also over NW Venezuela and N
Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 12N22W to a 1012 mb low near 10N41W to 09N46W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N52W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 08N-11N between 40W-44W in
association with the 1012 mb surface low near 10N41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level low over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing
scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 22.5N to southern
Louisiana between 87W-98W. Scattered showers are also in the
western Bay of Campeche. A 1017 mb surface high is near 27N85W.
The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh winds in the
eastern Gulf with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf.

Expect scattered showers and tstorms for the NW and north-central
Gulf today in association with the mid-level low. Weak high
pressure will remain over the NE Gulf through early next week,
supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds east of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air covers much of the Caribbean. Isolated showers
and tstorms prevail north of 17N between 66W-84W. Similar
activity is seen in the far SW Caribbean close to Panama and
southern Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to locally
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of
Honduras.

Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf
of Honduras at night through Tue. The areal coverage of fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase
over the weekend and extend to the SW Caribbean by early next week
as a tropical wave moves from the eastern to the central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp surface trough extends from 29N78W to a 1013 mb surface
low near 25N79.5W to 23N79W. The analysis of the surface low and
the trough are well-supported by surface observations, ASCAT
winds, satellite imagery and WSR-88D Doppler radar from Miami
Florida. Scattered moderate showers are seen across the NW Bahamas
and adjacent waters from 22N-30N between 73W-80W. The low will
move near or over South Florida later today, and near the coast
of east-central Florida on Saturday. After that time, some
development is possible while the low moves offshore the southeast
coast of the U.S. late this weekend and early next week. There is
a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 2 days
and a medium chance within the next 5 days. Locally heavy rains
are possible over the northwest Bahamas and southern and central
Florida during the next few days. Scattered showers and tstorms
will continue W of 72W the next few days. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate southeasterly winds will dominate the western Atlantic,
except over the NW forecast waters where the low pressure will
support fresh to strong winds on Sunday.

Currently, an upper-level low near 32N66W is enhancing scattered
moderate convection from 27N-32N between 57W-73W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb
high near 33N54W.

$$
Hagen
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