[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Chantal centered near 38.4N 42.9W at 22/1800
UTC or 684 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is E of the center from 37N-40N between 40W-42W. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-15N
between 16W-24W.

A 1011 mb low is embedded on the monsoon trough near 10N37W.
Scattered showers are seen from 10N-11N between 38W-40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 19N46W to 05N44W
moving W at 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show a moisture
maximum associated with the wave. Isolated showers are along and
within 200 nm E of the wave axis near the monsoon trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W from 19N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers cover the NE Caribbean
north of 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 16N16W to a 1011 mb
low near 10N37W to 10N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to the
coast of Venezuela near 07N57W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is along the coast of W Africa near the coast of
Sierra Leone and Guinea.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over S Georgia near 31N83W. A surface
trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 25N93W to 19N94W.
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
across much of the central and western Gulf, from 21N-29N between
86W-96W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is
centered over the SW Gulf near 21N94W and upper high is centered
over the N Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W. Upper level diffluence
is over the N Gulf enhancing convection in the area west of 86W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted across the northern
Gulf from the Louisiana coast to the Florida Panhandle and across
the peninsula. ASCAT indicated light and gentle winds prevail
across the basin with brief gusty winds near tstorms east of the
trough axis from 20N-26N between 92W-94W.

A trough near 94W will move west of the of area tonight. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will prevail along and near this trough.
Otherwise, high pressure will remain elsewhere across the area
maintaining gentle to moderate winds across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the upper levels, easterly flow prevails with some subsidence
across the eastern and central Caribbean as upper level ridge
centered near 21N64W remains in control. At the surface, latest
GOES 16 SAL imagery indicates the presence of SAL is still across
much of the south Caribbean from the ABC Islands to the Yucatan
Channel. ASCAT do show moderate to fresh easterly trades across
the eastern and central Caribbean and a light E/SE flow in the NW
Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the Bahamas across Cuba
to 19N77W. Abundant moisture in the vicinity continues to enhance
showers and tstorms over Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered showers and
tstorms are noted in Hispaniola associated to the tropical wave
along 68W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean from 09N-12N between 74W-84W. This convection is mostly
due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will develop over the
Gulf of Honduras tonight into early Fri before diminishing. Fresh
to strong northeast to east winds will continue over the south-
central Caribbean through Tue night, expanding in coverage later
this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An trough of low pressure over the northwest Bahamas is located
28N78W and beyond Central Cuba to 19N77W. Scattered moderate
convection is 22N-29N between 69W-79W. Scattered moderate
convection with this trough has become a little better organized
since yesterday. Slow development is possible during the next
several days while it moves northwestward towards the FL
peninsula, then turns northeast off the southeast coast of the
United States. Locally heavy rains are possible over portion of S
FL peninsula during the next day or two. Of note in the upper
levels, a small upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic
near 32N67W. Upper level diffluence is producing scattered
moderate convection from 27N-32N between 58W-63W. Further east, a
1025 mb high pressure is centered near 32N53W and remains in
control across the basin.

A surface trough near 78W will continue to support scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 70W at least
through Sat. The surface trough will move westward, reaching
Florida on Fri.

$$
MMTorres
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