[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
113 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 32W S of 19N,
moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show the wave
being accompanied by a large area of high moisture content.
Scattered showers are seen from 04N-08N between 30W-39W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 23N55W to 13N58W and
is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered light showers are seen within
90 nm of the wave axis from 15N-21N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Senegal near
13N17W to 10N31W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to 09N53W
to 07N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical
wave, scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen south of
the monsoon trough from 04N-08N between 21W-29W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-08N
between 11W-16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern end of a strong tropical wave is moving off the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Currently, scattered moderate convection is in the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from Cozumel to Cancun. Additional scattered
showers and tstorms are noted off the west coast of Florida.

The tropical wave moving into the Bay of Campeche will persist as
a mid-level trough, brining enhanced shower and thunderstorm
activity to much of the central and southwest Gulf today and
Thursday. Fresh to locally strong winds are forecast in the SW
Gulf tonight and Thursday. The mid-level trough will migrate
northward late in the week, enhancing convection for the
northwestern and north-central Gulf Thursday night into Friday.
Elsewhere, weak surface ridging will persist, leading to mainly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Enhanced upper-level divergence and abundant low-mid level
moisture is over the SE and Central Bahamas, eastern Cuba and
Hispaniola. As a result, scattered moderate convection is seen
within and near the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate
convection is over the NW Caribbean between Jamaica and the
Yucatan Channel due to enhanced moisture in the wake of the
tropical wave that is now along 90W. Some of the shower activity
extends southward into the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate
convection is seen in the Gulf of Venezuela and over northern
Colombia, associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough. The
eastern Caribbean is mostly dry. The latest ASCAT pass shows
strong trades in the central Caribbean between Jamaica and NE
Colombia.

A tropical wave over the western Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala
will support showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean W of 84W
through early this morning. Strong winds will affect the Gulf of
Honduras tonight and Thu night. Winds will remain fresh to locally
strong over the S central Caribbean through the forecast period
as the pressure gradient persists between high pressure N of the
region and low pressure over Colombia. The next tropical wave
will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight, then continue W and reach
the western Caribbean by the end of this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Enhanced upper-level divergence in between an upper trough and an
upper ridge as well as abundant low-mid level moisture are over
the SE and Central Bahamas, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. As a
result, scattered moderate convection is seen affecting portions
of the SE and Central Bahamas, as well as the adjacent waters from
20N-26N between 71W-75W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are elsewhere from 20N-28N between 70W-78W as well as in the
Florida Straits and across the Florida Keys. The remainder of the
Atlantic is being influenced by an E-W high pressure ridge along
30N, anchored by 1024 mb highs near 32N51W and 32N35W.

An upper-level trough extending SW from 31N70W to 24N81W will
support showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas this morning.
A surface ridge extending W from the Bermuda high will dominate
the northern waters through Saturday, with gentle to moderate E
to SE winds prevailing across much of the region. Fresh to locally
strong trades are expected at night between Hispaniola and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. In the far E Atlantic, strong to near
gale force N to NE winds will persist today offshore of Morocco
and Western Sahara as well as near the Canary Islands.

$$
Hagen
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