[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 34W, is moving
west at about 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave's axis mainly south of 10N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 67W, is moving
west at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery depicts a moisture maximum behind
the wave's axis covering the far eastern Caribbean. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the northern portion of the
wave north of 13N between 63W-67W.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan peninsula, with axis
from 21N90W to 04N91W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The convection
related to this feature prevails across the EPAC waters at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 24N15W to 13N24W to 07N39W. The
ITCZ extends from that point to 06N53W. Scattered showers are
noted within 150 nm north of the ITCZ mainly west of 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern extend of a tropical wave is moving across the
Yucatan peninsula. Refer  to the section above for details.

A 1013 mb low has developed over the Florida panhandle, centered
near 30N86W. A surface trough extends from the low to 29N87W.
Scattered showers prevail across the northeast Gulf with these
features, mainly north of 28N and east of 90W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin except
the Bay of Campeche, where fresh winds are noted.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the NE Gulf
of Mexico are associated with the low pressure over the Florida
Panhandle will dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse over the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters through
Mon. Weak high pressure will prevail across the central Gulf
through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

An upper level trough passes from the central Bahamas, across the
SE half of Cuba, to eastern Honduras. Upper level diffluence is over
Central America from Honduras to Costa Rica enhancing convection.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades prevailing
across the basin.

The passage of the tropical wave along with high pressure north
of the area will support fresh to strong winds over the south-
central Caribbean tonight through Tue night. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras today, then
mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the
forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N80W to
26N79W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. To the east,
a surface trough extends from 28N69W to 21N72W with scattered
showers within 75 nm on either sides of the trough. Surface
ridging prevails over the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1024 mb high near 32N55W and a 1023 mb high near 34N25W.

The surface trough over the west Atlantic will track westward
across the forecast waters through Mon before moving inland over
Florida Mon night into Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will accompany this trough. The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic high pressure and the trough will allow for generally
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds to the north of about
22N and for moderate to fresh east winds S of 22N through most of
the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at
night between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola through
mid-week.

$$

ERA
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