[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for Heavy Rainfall/Flooding over southern Mexico,
Central America, N Colombia, and N Venezuela. Expect higher
localized totals near strong topographical forcing. Flash floods
and mudslides will continue to be the primary hazards during this
event.

Scattered moderate convection is currently moving across the
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, NE Nicaragua,
and Costa Rica. Similar convection is over N Colombia and N
Venezuela.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W from 04N-17N, moving
W at 15-20 kts. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 10N-16N between 10W-20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W S from 07N-17N,
moving W at 15-20 kts. This wave is well depicted in model
guidance. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm of the
wave axis S of 12N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 07N-20N,
moving W at 10-15 kts. Scattered moderate convection is over the
Caribbean Sea from 10N-20N between 75W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 15N17W to 13N23W to
09N30W to 10N41W. The ITCZ extends from 10N41W to 12N50W to
09N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-12N between
47W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from N Florida near 30N84W to the NE
Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W. Scattered moderate convection is from
25N-31N between 82W-92W. Weak surface ridging with 10-15 kt
southerly flow covers the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper
levels, a large upper level high is centered over the NW Gulf near
27N94W. Strong subsidence is over the far W Gulf and S Texas.

The pre-frontal trough over the NE Gulf of Mexico with very deep
tropical moisture, together with a stationary front over the
southern U.S. will continue to bring convection over the NE Gulf
and Florida. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds
causing rough seas. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are expected
over the NE Gulf ahead of the front and trough through at least
Sun. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the western Yucatan
Peninsula adjacent waters through Mon. Otherwise, Atlantic high
pressure will build westward across the area early Sat and prevail
through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean, and another is
along 60W. See above. A special feature for heavy rainfall and
flooding is also above.

In addition, scattered moderate convection is over W Hispaniola
and Cuba. Elsewhere, a 1011 mb low is over the SW Caribbean near
11N80W basically connected to the eastern extent of the SE Pacific
monsoon trough. This low is enhancing convection E of Costa Rica.
Of note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence over the
central and western Caribbean is enhancing convection.

A tropical wave with axis along 79W will continue to move across
the western Caribbean today and Sat. The passage of this wave,
along with high pressure north of the area, will continue to
support fresh to near gale force trades over the central and
southwest Caribbean today, and over the NW Caribbean Sat and Sun.
Fresh to strong winds will resume over the south-central Caribbean
basin on Sun evening being supported by the passage of a new
tropical wave moving across that part of the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 28N67W. A surface
trough is over the W Atlantic from 27N60W to 20N60W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 20N-29N between 55W-65W.
Another 1026 mb high is entered over the central Atlantic near
33N49W.

A ridge, that currently dominates the W Atlantic, will begin to
slowly lift northward, as a trough moves from E to W across the
eastern and central forecast waters, through the upcoming
weekend. The rather light gradient will maintain mainly gentle to
moderate winds north of 22N, while moderate to fresh winds will be
south of 22N. Expect fresh to strong winds are between the Turks
and Caicos and Hispaniola at night through tonight. Strong winds
will resume over this area Sun evening and prevail through Mon
evening.

$$
Formosa
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