[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for Heavy to Extreme Rain/Flooding from southern Mexico
to Central America and portions of South America

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are currently
moving across NE Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Showers continue
off the coasts of southern Nicaragua to Panama. There is also some
scattered showers observed in northern Colombia and moving across
northern Venezuela.

A large surge of moisture will encompass the areas from the
northern portions of South America and across Central America,
from Panama into southern Mexico. Heavy to extreme rainfall will
continue particularly across Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador
during the next 36 hours. For today, heavy rainfall can also be
expected across Venezuela and northern Colombia. Expect higher
localized totals near strong topographical forcing. Flash floods
and mudslides will continue to be the primary hazards during this
event.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W S of 17N, moving W at
15-20 kts. Scattered showers are within 75 nm of the axis from
08N-11N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W S of 15N, moving W at
15-20 kts. This wave is well depicted in model guidance.
Scattered showers are seen along and near the axis and the ITCZ
from 07N-12N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W S of 19N,
moving W at 10-15 kts. An upper level trough extends from SE Cuba
to Jamaica to Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed along this wave from 10N-15N between 73W-
79W. There is also an area of strong convection, near Jamaica and
the northern tip of the wave axis, from 17N-20N between 75W-78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania near 18N16W to 10N28W
to 10N38W. The ITCZ continues from 10N38W to 09N56W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 09N57W to the coast of
Suriname near 08N58W. Scattered showers are seen south of the
monsoon trough from 06N-13N between 15W-38W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen across the ITCZ from 07N-12N
between 46W-61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough continues to extend into the NE Gulf. At the
surface, a stationary front is draped across the eastern and
central Gulf coast states from the eastern Florida Panhandle to
Louisiana. A pre-frontal trough is seen in the NE Gulf from 31N83W
to 29N85W. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the vicinity of
this trough and in the northern Gulf from 28N-30N between 83W-
92W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen
farther south from 24N-28N between 82W-88W. Surface ridging is
seen across the rest of the basin. The latest scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle winds across the basin with moderate
southwesterly winds in the southern Bay of Campeche.

The combination of a pre-frontal trough over the NE Gulf ahead of
a stationary front located over the southern U.S. along with very
deep tropical moisture in place will continue to bring convection
across the NE Gulf. Some of this activity may contain strong
gusty winds causing rough seas. Moderate to fresh southwest winds
are expected over the NE Gulf ahead of the front and trough
through at least Sunday. Winds will pulse to fresh over the
western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters through Monday, but to
fresh to strong Saturday night and Sunday night. Atlantic high
pressure will build westward across the area early Saturday and
prevail through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough has lifted northward into the SW Caribbean,
stretching from 11N73W to SW Nicaragua near 11N84W. A 1012 mb low
is along the monsoon trough near 12N81W. This is bringing
scattered thunderstorms across the SW basin from 09N-16N between
80W-85W. See the Special Features section for more information on
the heavy rainfall in Central and South America. Isolated
thunderstorms are also seen along and south of the Cayman Islands
from 17N-20N between 78W- 83W. Latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, north of
Colombia, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere.

A tropical wave with axis near 76W will move across the western
Caribbean tonight through early Saturday night. The passage of
the wave along with high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong trades over the central and southwest
Caribbean today, and over the NW Caribbean Saturday and Sunday.
Fresh to strong winds will resume over the south-central Caribbean
basin on Monday as a new tropical wave moves across that part of
the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As a mid-level trough pushes east in the NE Gulf, this is
bringing isolated thunderstorms across the Bahamas and portions of
the western Atlantic. This activity is seen from 23N-30N between
75W-79W. An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic
near 18N57W with a surface trough seen from 19N58W to 27N57W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen along this trough southward
in the northern Lesser Antilles, from 18N-29N between 56W-65W.
Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a
1027 mb high near 34N47W.

The ridge currently dominating the forecast area will begin to
slowly lift northward as a trough moves from E to W across the
eastern and central forecast waters during the upcoming weekend.
The rather light gradient will maintain mainly gentle to moderate
winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N
through most of the period. Expect moderate to fresh SW winds
across the NW part between the ridge and a stationary front over
the SE CONUS. Fresh to strong winds are expected between Turks and
Caicos and Hispaniola at night through tonight. Strong winds will
resume over this area Monday evening.

$$
AKR
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