[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large surge of moisture is expected across Panama, Costa Rica,
and southern Nicaragua through the next 24-36 hours. Environmental
conditions remain highly favorable for heavy rains to continue to
accumulate, with higher localized totals near strong
topographical forcing. Costa Rica has received nearly 7 inches of
rainfall in the last 24 hours, with 2-4" of additional rain in the
last 6 hours mostly on the north Caribbean side of the country.
By Friday, the focus of heavy rainfall will shift north to
Nicaragua, El Salvador, southern Honduras/Guatemala and southern
Chiapas Mexico. Flash flooding and mudslides will be the biggest
hazard during this event.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W S of 13N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
within 100 nm of the axis from 07N-10N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W S of 20N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this feature at this time.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W S of 22N,
moving W at 10 kt. This feature is enhancing convection along the
monsoon trough from Panama to Nicaragua, from 07N-14N between
78W-85W. See the special features section for more information in
regards to the heavy rainfall across Central America. Additionally,
scattered thunderstorms are moving across the NW Caribbean from
20N-23N between 81W-87W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
and The Gambia near 13N17W to 11N30W. The ITCZ continues from
11N30W to 10N38W, then W of a tropical wave near 10N41W to 09N49W
to the coast of Guyana near 06N56W. Scattered showers with
embedded thunderstorms are seen along and 200 nm south of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ between 17W-47W. Scattered thunderstorms are
seen moving into northeastern South America from 04N-11N between
51W-62W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough is moving eastward across the SE U.S. and
extends into the NE Gulf. At the surface, a 1012 mb low is
analyzed near 29N86W with a trough extending along the low from
30N86W to 28N90W. This is acting as a focal point for scattered
moderate convection in the north-central and northwestern Gulf,
from 26N-30N between 85W-93W. Thunderstorms are also igniting
across Florida, some of which are moving into the eastern Gulf
from 25N-29N and E of 83W. Otherwise, the western Gulf remains
quiet under a 1018 mb high near 25N91W. The Yucatan trough is
analyzed from 22N90W to 18N93W. Latest scatterometer data depicts
light to gentle winds across the Gulf.

A surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Winds will
pulse to fresh over the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters
each evening associated with a surface trough. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge is centered over the northern Caribbean,
with an inverted mid-level trough over Cuba. This is igniting
thunderstorms in between Cuba and the Cayman Islands from 18N-21N
between 78W-81W. Thunderstorms are also seen in the southern
Lesser Antilles and northeast Venezuela, S of 12N and E of 63W.
Beside quick moving showers across Puerto Rico and the northern
Lesser Antilles. See the tropical waves discussion on the strong
convection across Central America and the special features section
on the forecast of this activity. Latest scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong trades north of Colombia with moderate to
fresh trades across most of the central Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate trades are seen in the eastern and western basin.

A tropical wave with axis near 84W will move out of the western
Caribbean late today. Another tropical wave currently located
along 64W will move across the central Caribbean on Thursday,
reaching the western Caribbean by Friday. The passage of these
waves along with high pressure north of the area will continue to
support generally fresh to strong winds in the central and
southwest Caribbean through Friday night. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As a mid-level trough begins to exit the U.S. East Coast, this is
igniting thunderstorms across the western Atlantic. Most of the
scattered moderate convection is off the Florida coast in addition
to the Bahamas, from 22N-31N between 70W-80W. High pressure
dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high near
33N49W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
northerly winds off the coast of Western Sahara and Mauritania.

A surface ridge extending from the Bermuda High will persist
across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through the
end of the week. This pattern will maintain mainly gentle to
moderate winds north of 22N and moderate to fresh winds south of
22N through most of the period. No tropical cyclone activity is
expected for the next several days.

$$
AKR
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