[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 17N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Any nearby precipitation is with
the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 22N
southward, moving W 15 knots. The wave model diagnostics depict
the wave well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air,
which is limiting the precipitation to the north of 10N. Any
nearby precipitation is with the ITCZ.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 22N74W in the
Bahamas, across SE Cuba, to 15N77W in the Caribbean Sea, and to
08N along 76W/77W in Colombia, moving W 15 knots. The wave is
embedded in dry Saharan air, which is limiting precipitation over
water near the wave. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are
in Colombia from 06N to 08N between 73W and 76W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in Lake Maracaibo of
NW Venezuela.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W, from 22N and
the Yucatan Peninsula southward, moving W 10 knots. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 15N northward from the Mona Passage
westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 16N17W, to 09N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N39W to 07N50W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 180 nm
on either side of the line that runs from 11N15W 11N28W 08N40W
09N47W 10N60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along 32N, from 68W westward in the
Atlantic Ocean, to SE South Carolina. The 700 mb wind flow is
cyclonic from 30N northward between 70W and 80W, and in the NE
Gulf of Mexico. The middle level wind flow and the upper level
wind flow in these areas is anticyclonic. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N to
28N between the Florida west coast and 85W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the rest of the area that extends from 23N
northward from 92W eastward. The 700 mb wind flow is cyclonic
from 30N northward between 70W and 80W, and in the NE Gulf of
Mexico. The middle level wind flow and the upper level wind flow
in these areas is anticyclonic. The TPW imagery shows a large area
of enhanced moisture in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern
sections of the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for mainly
tranquil winds and slight seas through the end of the week.
The wind speeds will pulse to fresh to the W-NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening. No tropical cyclone activity is expected
during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The potential for heavy rain exists in parts of Panama, Costa
Rica and Nicaragua, from Wednesday through Friday, due to
favorable upper level atmospheric conditions. It is likely that
the rainfall amounts may range from 1 inch to 3 inches per day,
in the areas of heavy rain. Isolated flash floods are possible.

GFS model data for 500 mb and for 700 mb show an inverted trough
that extends from the SE Bahamas, across Hispaniola, toward the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea from Hispaniola to Puerto Rico and eastward,
southward to Venezuela, and westward to Jamaica. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 15N northward from the Mona Passage
westward.

Dry Saharan air covers much of the Caribbean Sea, from 11N
northward, not counting the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

GFS model data for 500 mb and for 700 mb show an inverted trough
that extends from the SE Bahamas, across Hispaniola, toward the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A weak tropical wave, that is along 88W, is moving across the
Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula today. A second
tropical wave, along 75W, will move across the central Caribbean
Sea today, and the W Caribbean into the middle of the week.
A third tropical wave will reach the eastern Caribbean Sea by the
middle of the week. The passage of these waves, along with high
pressure to the north of the area, will continue to support
generally fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest
Caribbean Sea. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the
next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 32N from 68W westward to SE South
Carolina. The 700 mb wind flow is cyclonic from 30N northward
between 70W and 80W, and in the NE Gulf of Mexico. The middle
level wind flow and the upper level wind flow in these areas is
anticyclonic. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
cover the area that extends from 20N northward from 60W westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that extends from
15N northward between 30W and 60W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N43W, through 32N46W, to 29N63W, to 27N74W.

A surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic Ocean,
west-southwestward, across the central Bahamas, to the Straits of
Florida, through the end of the week. This pattern will maintain
gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds
south of 22N. Active weather will continue across the NE sections
of the Atlantic Ocean zones today, as an old frontal zone and an
upper level trough linger there. No tropical cyclone activity is
expected during the next several days.

$$
MT
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