[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
718 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force N winds are
currently occurring offshore of Morocco in the marine zone
Agadir. The gales in Agadir are expected to continue through
Monday. Please visit http://meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for the latest forecast from
Meteo France.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic is along 39W from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict the wave
well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air which is
limiting convection north of 10N. Scattered moderate showers are
noted from 06N-10N between 36W-47W.

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W from 20N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air,
which is limiting convection near the wave axis. Isolated showers
are seen east of the wave axis between 58W-61W approaching the
Windward Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 22N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen near
and over Cuba, Jamaica and Panama as well as the waters of the SW
Caribbean south of 12N and west of 78W. Similar activity is over
the NW Caribbean ahead of the wave axis from 18N-22N, east of 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N22W to 07N30W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends along 08N between
42W-60W. Aside from the showers associated with the tropical
wave along 39W, scattered moderate convection is noted near and S
of the monsoon trough between 25W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid to upper level ridging covers most of the Gulf. A weak ridge
at the surface is also present, with a 1017 mb high located over
the central Gulf of Mexico. A plume of enhanced moisture is seen
in the TPW imagery running along the base of a large mid to upper
level trough. This is affecting portions of the northern and
eastern Gulf with showers and tstorms. Scattered moderate
convection is present over the north-central Gulf of Mexico,
north of 27N between 87W-91W, to include land areas from the
western Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana. An area of scattered
showers and tstorms is seen over the Florida Peninsula, extending
over the E Gulf E of 83W between the Florida Keys and Tampa Bay.
The western and SW Gulf are free of any significant shower
activity at this time. However, scattered showers and tstorms are
seen over the western Yucatan Peninsula and near the Yucatan
Channel. The ASCAT pass from late Sunday morning showed gentle
winds covering most of the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern
Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight
seas through mid week. Moderate winds off the NW coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh to locally strong each
evening in association with a local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Dry Saharan air covers much of the basin with little to no shower
activity over the open waters of the eastern or central Caribbean
Sea. Scattered showers and tstorms are occurring over land areas
of the Greater Antilles from the afternoon heating. Also,
scattered showers are seen in the NW Caribbean Sea north of 18N
between 79W-86W. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon
trough is enhancing convection south of 10.5N between 77W-83W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen over land between
Panama and Honduras. The ASCAT pass from Sunday morning showed
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean from 11N-15N
between 73W-79W, with fresh trades elsewhere from 10.5N-17.5N
between 67W-82W.

A tropical wave along 79W will move across the W Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras tonight and then west of the basin by early Mon.
A second tropical wave along 63W will move across the central
Caribbean through Tue, and the western Caribbean into mid week. A
third tropical wave will reach the eastern Caribbean by mid week.
The passage of these waves along with high pressure north of the
area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the central
and southwest basin, increasing to around 30 kt along the
Colombian coast at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A plume of enhanced moisture is seen in the TPW imagery running
along the base of a large mid to upper level trough. The enhanced
moisture is within 4 degrees of a line from 31N65W to the central
Florida Peninsula. As a result, scattered moderate convection is
seen inside a box from 31N56W to 24N83W to 32N86W to 35N56W to
31N56W. This includes Florida, the NW Bahamas and Bermuda. A 1022
mb high near 32N48W extends a ridge from the high to 26N62W to the
SE Bahamas, with fair weather over a large area.

A surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic W-SW
across the SE Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through mid week.
This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds north of 22N,
and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, pulsing to strong along
the north coast of Hispaniola each afternoon through evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net