[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic is along 37W from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict the
wave well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in SAL dry air which
is limiting convection north of 10N. Scattered showers are noted
within 04N-09N between 35W-39W near the monsoon trough.

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W from 19N southward,
moving W at at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted by model
diagnostics. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty, air from the
Sahara, which is inhibiting convection. Isolated showers are
noted near the Virgin Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 22N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers near the coast of Colombia
and Panama. A few showers are also noted northeast of Jamaica or
150 nm east of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N16W
to 06N49W. The ITCZ extends from 06N49W to near the border of
Venezuela and Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the showers associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted
near the coast of Africa S of the monsoon trough from 07N-12N
between 13W-17W, from 05N-09N between 20W-27W, and along the ITCZ
from 06N-08N between 52W-54W, and from 07N-09N between 57W-60W
near the coast of Venezuela.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridge extends from the W Atlantic to the central Gulf of
Mexico with a 1017 mb high pressure. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is present over the NE Gulf N of 25N and E of
90W.Some of this convection is moving along the Florida peninsula
producing moderate showers and thunderstorms. In the upper levels,
a large upper level high is centered over NE Texas near 32N97W,
producing NE to E upper level winds winds over the Gulf. Strong
subsidence is over the W Gulf. Recent scatterometer show gentle
and light winds in the central Gulf and moderate winds across the
Bay of Campeche.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern
Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight
seas through mid week. Moderate winds off the NW coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening
in association with a local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Dry Saharan air covers most of the basin with no shower activity
over the eastern, central and western Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S
of 10N along the coast of NW Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and
Nicaragua, mostly due to the proximity of monsoon trough near the
region, tropical wave along 77W and a 1009 mb low pressure in
Colombia. ASCAT data indicate fresh to strong easterly trades
across the Caribbean with strong conditions generally north of
10N-16N between 73W-79W.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea will move through
the Gulf of Honduras tonight and west of the basin by early Mon. A
second tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean this morning
will move across the central Caribbean through Mon, and the
western Caribbean into mid week. A third tropical wave will reach
the eastern Caribbean by mid week. The passage of these waves
along with high pressure north of the area will continue to
support fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest basin,
increasing to around 30 kt along the Colombian coast at nighttime.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave currently over the basin.

A 1025 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N46W.
A 1020 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N33W. The
low is mostly void of convection. Of note in the upper levels in
the W Atlantic, diffluence is producing scattered moderate
convection from the Straits of Florida and NE Bahamas, from 24N-
31N between 57W-79W. ASCAT data suggests gentle to moderate east
to northeast wind north of 12N. Fresh to strong is noted north of
29N-31N between 09N-13W.

Surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic W-SW across
the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through mid week.
This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds north of 22N,
and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, pulsing to strong along
the north coast of Hispaniola this afternoon through the evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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