[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic is along 37W from 03N-21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at
700 mb. Scattered showers are noted within 240 nm either side of
the wave axis, south of 10N.

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 60W from 03N-20N,
moving W at at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted by model
diagnostics at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty, air
from the Sahara, which is inhibiting convection. Isolated
moderate convection is noted, however, inland over over Guyana.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from 07N-22N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over N
Colombia, and Panama. Scattered showers are over Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N23W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to the coast of
Suriname near 06N55W. Aside from the showers associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted S of the
monsoon trough from 06N-10N between 14W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak 5-10 kt surface ridging prevails from the W Atlantic to the
central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are over the NE Gulf
N of 25N and E of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is over the
W Bay of Campeche S of 20N and W of 94W. In the upper levels, a
large upper level high is centered over E Texas near 32N95W,
producing NE to E upper level winds winds over the Gulf. Strong
subsidence is over the W Gulf.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern
Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight
seas through mid week. Moderate winds off the NW coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening
in association with a local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Dry Saharan air covers most of the basin with no shower activity
over the eastern and central Caribbean. Isolated moderate
convection is over the NW Caribbean N of 17N and W of 79W, mostly
due to an upper level low centered near 17N81W.

A tropical wave between eastern Panama and Jamaica will move
through the Gulf of Honduras tonight and west of the basin early
Mon. A second tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean this
morning will move across the central Caribbean through Mon, and
the western Caribbean into mid week. A third tropical wave will
reach the eastern Caribbean by mid week. The passage of these
waves along with high pressure north of the area will continue to
support fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest basin,
increasing to around 30 kt along the Colombian coast at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave currently over the basin.

A 1023 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N47W.
A 1018 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N29W. The
low is mostly void of convection. Of note in the upper levels,
diffluence is producing scattered moderate convection E of the
Bahamas, from 23N-25N between 69W-71W.

The Atlantic high pressure ridge will persist from the central
Atlantic W-SW across the central Bahamas to the Straits of
Florida through mid week. This pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of
22N, pulsing to strong along the north coast of Hispaniola each
afternoon through evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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