[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic is along 31W from 04N-19N,
moving W at 15 kt. Wave model diagnostics depicts the wave well,
and the TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's
environment. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W from 02N-20N,
moving W at at 10 kt. The wave is well depicted by model
diagnostics. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty air from the
Sahara, which is inhibiting convection at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 07N-21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture within
this wave. Scattered moderate convection is over W Hispaniola.
Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the wave axis N of
15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
13N16W to 09N31W to 08N45W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to
07N54W. Besides the showers associated with tropical waves, A
surface trough extends from 31N24W to the low center to 25N40W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough.
isolated moderate convection is south of the monsoon from 04N-08N
between 34W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1017 mb high near 24N85W. 5-15 kt anticyclonic surface winds are
over the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection persists over S
Mexico between 90W-96W. In the upper levels, a large upper level
high is centered over E Texas near 31N94W. Strong subsidence is
over the W Gulf.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern
Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight
seas through Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night
off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a
local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave currently across the basin.

10-20 kt surface winds are noted over the Caribbean Sea, with
strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate
convection is over the Gulf of Honduras. In the upper levels, a
small upper level low is centered over Jamaica near 18N78W.
Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the center. An
upper level high is centered over the E Caribbean near 16N67W with
strong subsidence.

The tropical wave along 71W will move between Panama and Cuba late
today, and exit west of the basin by Sun night. A second tropical
wave will move across the Leeward and Windward Islands late today
and into the eastern Caribbean, across the central Caribbean
through early next week, and west of the basin by mid week. A
third tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean by late
Tue, and into the central Caribbean through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
two tropical waves currently across the basin.

A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N49W.
A 1016 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 30N30W. Of
note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered E of the
Bahamas near 24N67W. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm
of the low center.

A ridge of high pressure will persist from the central Atlantic
across the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through mid
week. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds
south of 22N, pulsing to strong off Hispaniola late Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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