[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 18W from 17N southward, is moving
west at around 10 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance. Scattered
showers are noted from 07N-10N and east of 20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 33W from 14N
southward, is moving west at around 10-15 kt. This wave is also
depicted in model guidance. Scattered showers are noted south of
10N between 28W-37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 16N52W to a
1012 mb low near 13N52W to 05N52W, moving west at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-16N between 49W-55W.
This area has a potential for a gradual tropical development in
the forecast for the next few days while it moves WNW across the
Lesser Antilles.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 68W from 20N
southward, is moving west at around 10 kt. TPW imagery depicts an
area of high moisture content within this wave. Scattered showers
and tstorms are noted north of 17N between 67W-72W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 11N16W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N54W to 10N62W.
Aside from the convection associated to the tropical waves
described above, scattered showers are noted south of the monsoon
trough mainly east of 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridge is building across the western Gulf of Mexico
while an upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle,
across the central Gulf to the coast of Mexico near 21N98W. These
features are keeping light to gentle southeast winds across much
of the basin. Scattered showers are noted near the coast of
Louisiana associated to a surface trough that extends from a 1014
mb low near 30N90W to 29N93W. Another surface trough is analyzed
over the eastern Gulf from 27N82W to 25N84W with scattered
showers.

Weak high pressure will remain across the north-
central Gulf the next few days allowing for generally gentle to
moderate winds and relatively low seas throughout. The usual thermal
trough will develop every day over the Yucatan Peninsula and move
west over the Bay of Campeche with locally fresh winds and
scattered showers.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean.

Scattered moderate convection is noted over western Cuba and
Yucatan Channel. To the south, the monsoon trough is enhancing
showers south of 10N between 78W-83W. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with strongest speeds
prevailing across the south central portion.

The tropical wave along 68W will continue moving west across the
central and western Caribbean through Mon. Expect fresh to strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean tonight, and again Sun night,
then remain moderate to fresh through Wed. The elongated area of
low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles will move over the Tropical N Atlantic waters on
Sun, reaching the Lesser Antilles by Sun night. This system will
bring increasing winds and seas, as well as shower and
thunderstorm activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves.

The upper-mid level trough is bringing scattered moderate
convection across Florida and the western Atlantic west of 74W.
To the east, a surface trough extends into the central Atlantic
from a 1019 mb low near 34N47W to 26N55W. Scattered showers
prevail along the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high near 30N56W and
a 1024 mb high near 32N38W.

The convection over the west Atlantic will continue through early
Sun. High pressure will continue building over the central
Atlantic through Mon. An elongated area of low pressure located
several hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles is
forecast to move northwestward, by the middle of the next week,
with increased winds and seas, as well as shower and thunderstorm
activity.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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