[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301646
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 04S33W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S39W to the Mouth of the Amazon River near 01S50W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within
120 nm either side of a line from 07.5N11W to 02.5N24W and within
180 nm either side of a line from 04S28W to 02N49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer ridging remains in place over the Gulf. No deep
convection is evident over the basin and only shallow low-level
cloudiness is observed, primarily over the western Gulf. Gentle to
moderate E winds are seen in the eastern half of the Gulf. Gentle
to moderate SE winds are the general rule in the western Gulf.
Return flow around the western flank of the ridge manifests as
some fresh winds near the coasts of south Texas and northern
Mexico. Areas of smoke over the Bay of Campeche could reduce
visibility to 3 nm.

High pressure NE of the area will support mainly moderate to
locally fresh winds through the week. Winds could be locally
strong along the coast of Texas through Wed. Winds will also pulse
to between fresh and strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night
in conjunction with the daily development of a thermal trough over
the peninsula. The high pressure ridge over the Gulf may weaken
by the end of this week as broad troughing or weak low pressure
develops near the Florida Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough curves NE from the Windward Passage near 19N74W
to the SE Bahamas near 22N74W to NE of the Bahamas near 26N71W.
Upper-level ridging and subsident mid level air is inhibiting
convection over the Caribbean on the S side of this trough. Some
showers are also seen over Dominican Republic. Areas of smoke
could reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras.

Subsidence and dry air on the S side of the upper-level low
currently centered over the Bahamas is inhibiting deep convection
over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. However, the upper-level low
will remain close enough to these locations during the next couple
of days to trigger showers and isolated thunderstorms, primarily
over the higher terrain during daytime heating.

High pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia
will support fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean
through this weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are
expected across the rest of the basin. Winds will pulse to near
gale off the coast of Colombia during the late night and early
morning hours. Winds will diminish slightly by this weekend as low
pres moving E from the United States mainland weakens the ridge
over the western Atlc. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere. Easterly swell will move into the waters east
of the Windward Islands by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves NE from the Windward Passage near 19N74W
to the SE Bahamas near 22N74W to NE of the Bahamas near 26N71W.
Mid to upper-level low pressure centered near 24N73W is supporting
the surface trough. The surface trough continues to provide a
low-level focus for scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection over the SE Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos
Islands from 22N to 28N between 68W and 74W. The surface trough
will linger over the Bahamas during the next couple of days while
high pressure builds NE of the area. This pattern will support
moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except fresh to strong S of 27N
through Wednesday night. Winds will also pulse to strong offshore
of Hispaniola, mainly at night through Fri night. The upper-level
low and surface trough will weaken and shift W toward the end of
this week, allowing winds to diminish and seas to subside in this
region.

Farther east, a surface trough stretches from 25N38W to near
31N37W. The trough has little in the way of cloudiness or showers
associated with it.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAM
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