[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to near 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N30W
to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 26/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N87W to the central Gulf of mexico near 24N90W to the Bay
of Campeche near 19N95W. Scattered moderate convection is over
the NE Gulf of Mexico and N Florida N of 27N between 81W-87W.
10-15 kt northerly surface winds are W of the front. 10-20 kt
southerly winds are E of the front with strongest winds over the
NE Gulf. Light to medium smoke is noted over the W Gulf W of 89W.

Expect the cold front to stall over the SE Gulf by early Sat,
gradually dissipating through Sat night. High pressure will build
in the wake of the front and prevail through early next week,
then shift east of the region through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N74W. Isolated
moderate convection is over N Colombia and N Venezuela. Scattered
showers are over the S Caribbean S of 13N and E of 75W. More
scattered showers are over Hispaniola, E Cuba, Costa Rica, and W
Panama. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper
levels, strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea. Light
to medium smoke is noted over the Gulf of Honduras.

Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south central
Caribbean, expanding to cover the entire central Caribbean by
early next week as the pressure gradient tightens, to
include off the northern coast of Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next week.

Conditions are becoming favorable for a heavy rainfall event
over Hispaniola on Sunday and Monday. Strong forcing is expected
on Monday evening as a subtropical jet maxima streams south of the
island. Expect 1-3 inches per day with a maximum of 4-6 inches.
Severe convection is expected with a higher risk for the Haitian
Peninsula and interior portions of the island. Flash flooding is
possible.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 29N
and W of 78W. A 1018 mb high is over the western Atlantic near
30N67W. Another 1019 mb high is centered near 25N63W. A 1012 mb
low is centered over the central Atlantic near 36N45W. A surface
trough extends S from the low to 27N49W to 21N56W. Scattered
showers are from 25N- 31N between 41W- 50W.

A front will move off the northeast Florida coast later today.
The front will shift east before stalling from near Bermuda to
south Florida late Sat into early Sun, then lifting north as a
warm front or remnant trough through late Sun. High pressure will
build north of the area early next week, allowing pulses of fresh
to strong winds north of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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