[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of N Liberia near
07N11W to near 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 00N30W
to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 26/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from S Mississippi near
30N89W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N96W. Scattered moderate
convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and N Florida N of 28N
between 82W-87W. 10-15 kt northerly surface winds are W of the
front. 10-20 kt southerly winds are E of the front with strongest
winds over the NE Gulf. Light to medium smoke is noted over the W
Gulf W of 89W.

Expect the cold front to stall over the SE Gulf by early Sat,
gradually dissipating through Sat night. Thunderstorms will
accompany the front as it moves eastward across the forecast
waters. High pres will build in the wake of the front and prevail
through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. Isolated
moderate convection is over N Colombia and N Venezuela. Scattered
showers are over the S Caribbean S of 13N and E of 75W. More
scattered showers are over Hispaniola, E Cuba, Costa Rica, and W
Panama. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper
levels, strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea. Light
to medium smoke is noted over the Gulf of Honduras.

Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south central
Caribbean, expanding to cover the entire central Caribbean by
early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. Fresh to
strong winds north of Honduras will diminish Friday afternoon,
returning Monday evening, and pulsing again Tuesday evening.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early
next week.

Conditions are becoming favorable for a heavy rainfall event
over Hispaniola on Sunday and Monday. Strong forcing is expected
on Monday evening as a subtropical jet maxima streams south of the
island. Expect 1-3 inches per day with a maxima of 4-6 inches.
Severe convection is expected with a higher risk for the Haitian
Peninsula and interior portions of the island. Flash flooding is
possible.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 30N69W. Another
1020 mb high is centered near 25N65W. A 1015 mb low is centered
over the central Atlantic near 33N46W. A surface trough extends S
from the low to 22N54W. Scattered showers are from 26N-31N
between 44W-50W.

The trough in the central Atlantic will dissipate tonight. High
pressure on either side of the trough will merge and shift E on
Friday ahead of a cold front which will move off NE Florida on
Friday evening. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central
Bahamas Saturday morning, then stall from 28N65W to the central
Bahamas early Sunday, lifting N as a warm front or remnant trough
through the end of the weekend. High pressure will build N of the
area early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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