[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N12W
to near 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 00N26W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 05N-01N between 12W-24W.
Isolated moderate convection is seen within 200 nm of the ITCZ
trough west of 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front entered the Gulf from central Louisiana near 26N93W
to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. A cluster of thunderstorms is
east of the front moving across the waters south of coastal
Mississippi and Alabama. This squall line is producing frequent
lightning, gusty winds and visibility less than 1 nm. Scattered
showers are also seen across the central and eastern Gulf ahead of
the front. A 1009 mb low is located in the Bay of Campeche near
21N95W with a pre-frontal trough along the low extending near
23N94W to near 18N94W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are
behind the front, with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds
ahead of the front. Light southeasterly winds are near the Florida
coast due to the ridging from a high centered in the western
Atlantic.

Expect strong to gale force NW winds near the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico for this evening. Thunderstorms continue to move ahead of
the front across the north-central and eastern Gulf. The front
will stall in the SE Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front and prevail through early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High clouds continue to stream across the southern Caribbean.
Meanwhile, isolated convection is seen across central Cuba and
Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the Gulf of
Honduras and north of Colombia. Gentle trades are seen in the rest
of the basin.

Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south central
Caribbean, expanding to cover the entire central Caribbean by
early next week as the pres gradient tightens. Fresh to strong
winds north of Honduras will diminish by Friday afternoon,
returning Monday evening, and pulsing again Tuesday evening.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early
next week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 30N70W. A
surface trough is seen near 27N48W stretching southwest to near
22N57W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of this trough
30N-27N between 46W-50W. To the southeast of this trough, another
elongated trough is seen in the central Atlantic near 27N38W to
near 17N56W. Showers are seen within 150 nm south of the trough. A
surface trough is also present over the central Bahamas 25N72W to
near 20N74W.

A trough in the central Atlantic will dissipate tonight. High
pressure on either side of the trough will merge and shift E on
Friday ahead of a cold front which will move off NE Florida on
Friday evening. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central
Bahamas Saturday morning, then stall from 28N65W to the central
Bahamas early Sunday, lifting N as a warm front or remnant trough
through the end of the weekend. High pressure will build N of the
area early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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