[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N15W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm either
side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N86W
with fair weather. 10-20 kt surface winds are over the Gulf with
the weakest winds around the high, and strongest winds over the W
Gulf.

High pressure will remain across the area through Wed, then begin
to slide eastward in response to a cold front that will move
across the central United States. The cold front, possibly
attendant by low pressure, will move over the far western Gulf
early on Thu, then slowly move across the rest of the NW Gulf
through Thu night and reach the far eastern Gulf by Fri evening.
It will then become stationary and weaken to a trough Sat.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with this frontal
system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate convection is over E Panama, N Colombia, and W
Venezuela. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto
Rico, and Hispaniola. More scattered showers are over central
Honduras, N Nicaragua, W Panama, and NW Venezuela. 10-20 kt
tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with
strong subsidence prevails.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain moderate to
fresh trade winds across the south central and eastern Caribbean
through Tuesday night. The trade winds will slowly diminish
thereafter as the high pressure dissipates. Looking ahead, a cold
front may move into the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of
Mexico by the end of the week into next weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a stationary front enters the basin near
31N69W to 26N71W, then transitions into a surface trough from
that point to Hispaniola near 20N72W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the front. In the central
Atlantic, a 1012 mb low is centered near 25N52W. A surface trough
extends from the low to 21N55W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the NE quadrant of the low mainly north 25N between 42W-
50W.

The stationary front and trough will gradually dissipate through
Wednesday. Low pressure may track across the southern United
States or Gulf of Mexico late in the week, with its attendant cold
front moving off the southeastern United States coast by early Sat.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds,
associated with this system are expected to affect much of the
northwestern part of the area Fri through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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