[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters off the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from
04N15W to 01S31W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 100 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the northeast Gulf near 30N86W.
Light to gentle winds are noted near the high center. Moderate to
locally fresh return flow continues west of 92W. Some light
showers are seen right off the south Texas coast.

High pressure will prevail across the basin through midweek
before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move
into the NW Gulf on Thursday, pushing across the basin through
Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough, which used to be the stationary front, extends into the
northwest Caribbean. The trough enters the basin off of central
Cuba near 21N79W to 17N84W. Light showers can be seen near the
trough and some embedded thunderstorms are moving across eastern
Cuba. Showers are also moving across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and
Jamaica. Low topped showers are seen across the Lesser Antilles
and the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are across the
northwest basin, while moderate to fresh trades are across the
rest of the Caribbean.

The surface trough will dissipate through tonight. High pressure
over the central Atlantic will maintain pulses of strong winds off
Colombia and moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere into mid
week. Trade winds will slowly diminish thereafter as the high
pressure dissipates. A cold front may move into the NW Caribbean
from the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week into next weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a stationary front enters the waters
near 31N72W and extends south across the Bahamas to near 22N77W.
Showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front north of
25N. A reinforcing trough to the west of the stationary front
extends from 31N77W to 28N80W. Farther east, a 1015 mb low is near
27N48W with a dying stationary front to the east of this low near
31N40W to 18N46W. Showers are seen in the vicinity of the low in
addition to the dying stationary front, particularly north of 23N.

The stationary front in the western Atlantic will gradually
dissipate through Monday, with remnants lingering through mid
week. NE swell will propagate into the waters N of the Virgin
Islands through the early part of the week. The next cold front
may move off NE Florida by the very end of the week into next
weekend.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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