[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...A cold front is along 31N78W to
24N81W. Expect S-to-SW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 10 feet to 15 feet, N of 28N between 75W and the cold
front. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to the
Equator along 23W, to 06S31W, to the coast of Brazil near
05S39W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 300
nm to 400 nm to the SE of the monsoon trough between 08W and 13W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N
southward from 40W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front from six hours ago, has exited from the Gulf of
Mexico completely. Part of the cold front reaches 27N79W,
skirting the SE coast of Florida, beyond the coast of Cuba near
23N82W, and toward the Gulf of Honduras in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Virtually all the precipitation that was
occurring with the cold front is outside the area of the Gulf of
Mexico. It is possible that some rainshowers may be lingering in
the extreme eastern and southeastern sections of the Gulf of
Mexico. Cold air cumulus clouds are following the cold front.

A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb central Texas high
pressure center to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is
along the coast of Mexico near 21N98W.

The current cold front, which has moved across the Gulf of
Mexico, has moved to the SE of the area now. Enhanced winds and
seas in the north and north central waters will decrease today.
Surface high pressure, that is building in the wake of the
front, will prevail through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is skirting the SE coast of Florida, beyond the
coast of Cuba near 23N82W, and toward the Gulf of Honduras in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A squall line is to the east
of the cold front, within 20 nm to the east of the front on the
southern end near 21N, and within 75 nm to the east of the cold
front near 31N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 82W
westward, and in central Honduras.

Rainshowers are possible, in clusters of broken low level
clouds, from 15N northward from 81W eastward.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough passing through NW Cuba
to northern Costa Rica. The GFS model for the surface shows a
broad trough along roughly the same position.

The current cold front, that is in the far NW Caribbean Sea,
will shift eastward slowly, before dissipating on Sunday.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
Sea and the tropical N Atlantic Ocean, with the exception of
strong NE winds N of Colombia. The trade winds will
diminish slowly through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N78W to 27N79W, skirting the SE
coast of Florida, beyond the coast of Cuba near 23N82W, and
toward the Gulf of Honduras in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. A squall line is to the east of the cold front, within 20
nm to the east of the front on the southern end near 21N, and
within 75 nm to the east of the cold front near 31N. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 150 nm to the
east of the squall line, from 27N northward. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 220 nm to the east of the squall line,
from 23N to 27N. This front is the same cold front that is
associated with the gale-force winds that are the subject of the
SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A cold front is in the central Atlantic Ocean, passing through
32N37W to 26N40W to 23N51W. The front is stationary from 23N51W
to 25N62W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm to
the east of the front, and within 320 nm to the west of the
front from 27N northward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 90 nm to the south of the stationary
front between 55W and 60W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere within 150 nm to the south of the stationary front
between 59W and 61W.

The current cold front will continue eastward. Gale-force winds,
N of 28N east of the front, will prevail through this afternoon
before diminishing. The cold front will reach from near 31N71W
to the SE Bahamas on Sunday afternoon, where it will stall and
dissipate gradually.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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