[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...
A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu morning.
Strong to gale force winds are expected ahead of the front in the
northern Gulf zones, with frequent gusts to gale force behind the
front across much of the basin. Please refer to the Atlantic High
Seas Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning...
A cold front is expected to move off the Florida Peninsula Fri
night. Gale force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front
N of 27N. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone at
08N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 01S20W to
03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is located within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is over the western Atlantic offshore of South
Carolina with a ridge extending over the SE United States. With
the pressure gradient being modest over the Gulf, SE winds are
generally 10 to 15 kt. No significant showers or thunderstorms are
present. There exists some reduced visibility over the W Gulf W of
90W with smoke.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu morning.
Strong to gale force winds are expected ahead of the front in the
northern Gulf zones, with frequent gusts to gale force behind the
front across much of the basin. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms will accompany the cold front which will reach from
SW Louisiana to S Texas Thu evening, from Mobile, Alabama to the
central Bay of Campeche Fri morning, moving SE of the area Fri
night. High pres will build in from the W in the wake of the front
this weekend with return flow expected by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1021 mb high over the western Atlantic offshore of South
Carolina is inducing a moderate N-S pressure gradient over the
Caribbean. 10-20 kt E trade winds cover most of the Caribbean
with the exception of NE winds up to 30 kt near the coast of
Colombia. A surface trough extends from central Cuba west-
southwestward to near 19N85W. Scattered showers are present
within 60 nm of the trough axis. Additionally, widely scattered
showers are impacting the Windward and Leeward Islands. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over N Colombia.

High pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the S central Caribbean through the next several
days. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras
Thu into early Fri. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move
into the NW Caribbean Fri night, then weaken and become
stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night.
Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected in the wake
of the front Fri night into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends over the Atlantic from 31N50W west-
southwestward to 27N70W to central Cuba near 22N79W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm along the front
north of 26N and scattered showers are located within 60 nm along
the front south of 26N. No strong winds or high seas are
associated with this front. A 1022 mb high is over the central
Atlantic near 30N37W. Farther east, a cold front extends from
31N09W southwestward to 25N20W to 23N37W. Scattered showers exist
within 60 nm of the front. While no significant winds exist in
association with the front, seas up to 9 ft are present from NW
swell.

The W Atlantic front will dissipate tonight with high pressure
building down from the N. Winds and seas will increase over much
of the NW waters Thu night into Fri ahead of a cold front expected
to move off the Florida peninsula Fri night. Gale force southerly
winds are forecast ahead of the front N of 27N. Numerous showers
and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the front which
is forecast to reach from 31N73W to the central Bahamas and
central Cuba by Sat evening, and from 31N69W to the SE Bahamas Sun
evening where it will stall dissipate into early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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