[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 01S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is from 06S-04N between 12W-35W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is just off the coast of Africa from 03N-06N
between 08W-12W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen from
06S-04N between 35W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near
30N89W. 10-20 kt anticyclonic surface winds cover the Gulf. Mid-
level anticyclonic flow and strong subsidence are creating fairly
dry air over most of the Gulf.

High pressure in the northern Gulf will shift slowly E through
Thu ahead of a cold front that will move into the NW Gulf Thu
morning. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to the central Bay
of Campeche Thu night, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan
Peninsula Fri, then move SE of the area Fri night. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind the front.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in lines, some with
strong gusty winds, are likely to accompany the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds
are along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds are over the
NW Caribbean S of the front. Typical isolated trade wind showers
are present across the Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
seen over northern Colombia, but most of this activity is
remaining inland.

High pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Highest
winds will be near the coast of Colombia at night, with building
seas of 9 to 10 ft. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move
into the NW Caribbean Fri night, then weaken and become stationary
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 32N68W to the
Bahamas near 25N76W and continues as a stationary front to the
north-central coast of Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered showers are
seen within 60 nm of the front. A 1025 mb high is over the
central Atlantic near 30N47W.

Over the E Atlantic, large NW swell is expected from 17N-31N
between 15W-40W today and Wednesday. Over the W Atlantic, the
weakening cold front will reach from 29N65W to the southern
Bahamas later today, then become stationary Wed. High pressure in
the wake of the front will shift slowly eastward across the area
Wed through Thu night. Winds and seas will increase over much of
the NW waters Fri ahead of a cold front that is expected to move
off the Florida peninsula Fri night. Gale conditions are possible
ahead of the front over northern forecast waters Fri afternoon
through Sat. Numerous showers and scattered strong thunderstorms
will accompany this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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